A Few Words on Recent Gold: Don't Mistake "Hedging" for "Capital Preservation"

These days, more friends are asking about gold during live streams.
Since the beginning of the month, gold prices have been falling for nearly a week, with domestic gold prices dropping from over 970 to below 900, and international markets retreating nearly 30% from their highs this year.
People who queued up to buy gold at the start of the year, shouting "buy to fight inflation," are now worried about their accounts:
Why is the so-called safe-haven asset falling more fiercely than equities?

Actually, there’s no asset that only rises and never falls; it’s just a matter of the cycle.
Many people have a misconception about gold: thinking that "buying gold in turbulent times" guarantees no losses.
But the truth is, gold’s "hedging" is never about protecting you from short-term losses; it’s about offsetting long-term credit risk and inflation risk.
Over a few months, it still follows the Federal Reserve’s interest rate expectations and can plummet due to capital stampedes.

This decline is essentially a complete shift in market expectations—at the start of the year, everyone was waiting for rate cuts; now, with inflation uncontained, the market is betting on rate hikes.
U.S. Treasury yields are rising, the dollar continues to strengthen, and holding gold that doesn’t generate interest naturally leads capital to seek higher yields—this is the simplest trading logic.

After so many years of trading, I actually think gold is the most testing of one’s patience.
It won’t blow up your position in minutes like futures contracts, but it will wear down your confidence with prolonged downward dips and test your patience with slow upward moves.
Many people cut losses at the bottom and chase highs at the top—not because they don’t understand the logic, but because they can’t endure the cycle.

At this point, claiming the bottom is too early, and saying gold has completely collapsed, is not necessarily accurate.
There’s no need to guess the bottom, nor panic and cut losses.
If you’re a long-term investor, this volatility should already be within your expectations;
If you’re a short-term trader, then respect the trend and don’t fight the market.
The biggest mistake in trading is using "long-term value" as an excuse to stubbornly hold through short-term mistakes.

Ultimately, whether it’s gold or other assets, first survive, then talk about making money.
When the market is bad, hold back, trade less, and preserve your principal—this is more important than anything.
Cycles turn, and there will be a day when the market returns; the real fear is that when the market comes #黄金行情 back, you’re no longer in the game.