#TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 As of June 13, 2026, the latest spot gold (XAU/USD) price is approximately $4,220 per ounce, and domestic Au99.99 is about 917–918 yuan per gram. Recently, gold prices have sharply retraced over 25% from the historical high (around $5,599), with gains for the year largely given back. Currently, it is in a phase of oscillation and consolidation after an oversold rebound.

📉 Recent decline reasons

- Hawkish Federal Reserve expectations: The US non-farm payrolls in May exceeded expectations, and the market bets that the Fed may raise interest rates this year rather than cut them. The US dollar index remains above 100, and US bond yields have risen → increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
- Profit-taking and capital diversion: Previous gains were overextended, with long positions closing out; AI tech stocks attract capital, and gold ETFs have recently experienced net outflows.
- Technical breakdown: The daily chart broke below the 200-day moving average and the key support at $4,100, triggering programmed selling, with the lowest touching $4,023.

📊 Technical outlook

- Short-term oversold rebound: RSI has dipped into oversold territory, currently oscillating between $4,200 and $4,250, with resistance at $4,245–$4,260 and support at $4,180–$4,200. Strong support is at $4,000–$4,020.
- Moving averages bearish: Price remains below the 5/20/60-day moving averages, and the medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed, currently viewed as a "rebound oscillation within a bearish trend."

🏦 Institutional views

Institution Short/Medium-term outlook
Citibank 3-month target lowered to $4,000, or lower if geopolitical tensions worsen
JPMorgan/JPMorgan Chase & Co. 2026 second-half target lowered to $5,200
Huatai/Henry & Co. Short-term under pressure; long-term support from de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases; medium-term range of $4,200–$4,800
Some funds This correction is a deep correction midway through a bull market, not a trend end; central bank gold purchases continue to provide bottom support

🔮 Market focus and trading tips

- Key variables: June Federal Reserve meeting statements, US CPI inflation data, Middle East situation (Strait of Hormuz), and dollar index trends.
- Scenario forecast: If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance → gold may test support at $4,000–$4,020 again; if rate hike expectations ease or geopolitical tensions escalate → potential challenge to resistance at $4,300–$4,400.
- ⚠️ Risk warning: Current volatility is high. It is not recommended to blindly chase gains or sell at lows, nor to use high leverage for bottom-fishing. Physical gold jewelry has high manufacturing premiums and is not suitable for short-term "bottom-fishing" arbitrage. Investment involves risks; the above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.