MSTR Market Analysis 2026.06.12

From a fundamental perspective, the core issue for MSTR is not the disappearance of the BTC narrative but rather the simultaneous pressure on the stock price from three dimensions: BTC price decline, rising financing costs, and shrinking valuation premiums.

The company is still executing the main strategy of "continuously increasing BTC holdings," but this also brings a problem—MSTR is too heavily affected by BTC price fluctuations. In Q1, due to a decline in BTC's fair value, the company recorded a large unrealized loss, with net losses reaching $12.54 billion. The market is increasingly concerned about MSTR's capital structure.

From a technical standpoint, the decline starting at 543 and the rise from 12.24 to 543 are of the same magnitude, both belonging to monthly-level trends.

Recently, focus should be on the gain or loss at the 116.2 level. If two consecutive weekly K-line bodies close below this level and subsequent recovery is not achieved, MSTR may accelerate its decline.

After identifying the end point of the decline starting at 543, MSTR will likely experience a rebound wave targeting this decline (illustrated by the blue segment) or a monthly-level rise of the same grade as the 12.24-543 move (illustrated by the red short segment on the right). The key to distinguishing between the two is the gain or loss of the 38.5 level, which is a critical support line. #MSTR $MSTRX