According to Galaxy Research, the current correction of Bitcoin has decreased by 51% compared to the October 2025 peak, and the research firm predicts that the cycle bottom is most likely to form between $40,000 and $46,000 before Q4 2026.

The report states that Bitcoin's 4-year cycle pattern remains valid, with historical peak-to-trough declines of 85% (2013), 84% (2017), and 77% (2021). Since the peak of the current cycle is "lighter," Galaxy expects a relatively shallow bottom. The company emphasizes that only 8 months have passed since the peak, which is less than the usual 12-13 months needed for the cycle bottom to form in historical data, and most cycle bottom signals have not yet appeared.