In Galaxy, Bitcoin dropped to $40,000 - ForkLog

# In Galaxy, Bitcoin has fallen to $40,000

Galaxy Research team concluded that the current market cycle of the first cryptocurrency has not yet reached its bottom. According to the report, the asset's price could drop to the range of $40,000-$46,000.

Source: Galaxy. Analysts noted that the four-year price movement rhythm tied to halvings continues. However, the amplitude of fluctuations is decreasing: each new peak becomes less "euphoric," and declines are less deep.

The maximum, recorded in October 2025 at $124,824, was called the calmest in history by the researchers. They believe this is due to the dominance of institutional capital and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have smoothed volatility compared to previous retail rallies.

Where is the bottom

To determine the possible minimum, experts used the realized price (the average purchase cost of coins by all holders). Currently, this indicator is about $53,000.

Source: Galaxy. In previous cycles, Bitcoin's price usually fell below this level by 25-44%. At present, only four out of 13 key bottom indicators have signaled that the minimum has been reached.

Galaxy's scenarios are distributed as follows:

• Base case: decline to $40,000-$46,000.
• Pessimistic: in case of strong panic, the price could drop to $30,000-$37,000.
• Optimistic: support at the cost basis level of about $51,000-$54,000.

Source: Galaxy.## Timelines and Risks

Historically, the bottom forms 12-13 months after reaching the all-time high. This means the window for forming the bottom will open in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Researchers warned: calculations are based on the purchase cost of coins. If a panic sell-off begins, this indicator will decrease, which could push support levels even lower.

Recall that in May, analysts predicted Bitcoin's exit from the bear phase.