Terrorizing dominance by South American teams on home soil in the Americas—winning 7 of 8 World Cups there. Can the U.S. break the spell?

The U.S. team is indeed the World Cup host, but did you know that—at World Cups held in South America (or when South American teams serve as co-hosts)—South American teams’ records are practically on a level of outright control? Since 1930, among the 8 World Cups held on the American continent, South American teams have won the title 7 times; the only exception was 2014 in Brazil, when Germany won.

Isn’t this data pretty frightening? Paraguay, as a South American team, may not be a favorite to win, but the “home advantage” aura is just as effective for them. They’re more accustomed to the climate, the stadiums, and the fan atmosphere of the continent. Especially compared with European teams, South American teams playing on the American continent have never felt out of place.

Paraguay’s head coach Alfarro is very well aware of this. Before the match, he emphasized it several times: “We play in the Americas—this isn’t an away game; this is our home.” For Paraguay’s players, this kind of psychological cue provides a huge mental boost.

But the U.S. team isn’t taking it lightly either. They also have the “host” status, and within the U.S. there are a large number of Paraguayans fans—so whether the atmosphere in the stadium will tilt toward whom is really hard to say. The U.S.’s main advantage still comes from how familiar they are with the venue: they don’t have to travel long distances, they don’t have to deal with jet lag, and they can prepare at their own familiar training base. These seemingly minor details could end up being the last straw that breaks the camel’s back during the match.

You can choose not to believe in something like a curse, but the data is right there—you can hardly ignore it completely. If Paraguay really pulls off an upset victory over the U.S., it wouldn’t be too surprising, after all, the “South American curse” is backing them up.

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