Pulisic returns from injury + blazing form—Can this time’s US Captain shoulder the team?

When talking about the US team, there is one name you absolutely can’t bypass—Christian Pulisic. The winger of AC Milan, the absolute core of the US team, and also the spiritual leader of this side. He got his form back in time before the World Cup kicked off; in the warm-up matches, he looked very impressive, and the media broadly considers him the most important trigger for the US team’s attack.

Pulisic’s strengths are his quickness, his good dribbling, and his strong ability to cut inside and shoot. Against a defensively packed team like Paraguay, his individual breakthroughs may be the only way to crack the “iron bucket” formation. The US team is expected to field a 4-2-3-1 setup: Pulisic will play at left wing or as an attacking midfielder, Balogun will push up, and Tillman will connect from behind him. Pochettino may give Pulisic more freedom rather than keeping him fixed out wide—this way, his flexible runs can stretch and disrupt Paraguay’s defensive shape.

However, Pulisic also has a potential downside—he has had relatively more injuries during his career. Under the high-intensity duels of the World Cup, whether he can stay healthy is still a question mark. What’s more, Paraguay’s defensive style is extremely physical; players like Gómez and Alderete never pull punches, and they will absolutely use fouls to stop Pulisic’s runs into space. If he is injured and forced off, the US team’s attacking firepower will be greatly reduced.

Besides Pulisic, the US team also has Balogun up front. The forward who plays for Monaco scored 19 goals last season across all competitions, with outstanding finishing. The link-up between him and Pulisic will be a key part of the US team’s attack. In addition, McKennie’s late runs from midfield are also a threat—he developed a pretty good long-range shot at Juventus. The US team’s attacking firepower is certainly fierce, but whether it can be converted into goals largely depends on how Pulisic performs on the day.

Polymarket data shows the US team’s win probability is about 49.5%, while Paraguay’s is only around 22.5%. The market still favors the home side, but these odds don’t actually widen by much—suggesting that even the bookmakers don’t have much certainty. My view is that Pulisic’s form will directly determine the US team’s ceiling. If he can create danger with breakthroughs right at the start of the match, or even get an early goal, the US team can control the tempo. Conversely, if Paraguay’s defense keeps him firmly contained, the US team’s attack will fall into stagnation.

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