Does the “home team curse” reappear again? With the U.S. enjoying timing and location, is the opening match truly secure?

In the first round of World Cup Group D, the host United States will take on South American powerhouse Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. Many fans’ first reaction is definitely this: the U.S. team is ranked higher than Paraguay (United States 16th, Paraguay 40th), its market value overwhelms Paraguay (388 million versus 92 million euros), it has won in all of its last five head-to-head meetings, and it’s also playing at home—aren’t these three points a sure thing? But after watching the Mexico vs. South Africa match a few days ago, everyone should understand—there has never been a word like “sure” in the World Cup opening match.

Let’s first talk about the U.S. team. In recent years, this squad has seen an explosion of talent: Pulisic (AC Milan), McKennie (Juventus), Balogun (Monaco), Reyna, Richards (Crystal Palace), and others are all playing in Europe’s top leagues. After Pochettino took over, the U.S. team’s high-pressing intensity has been extremely high; in warm-up matches against tough opponents such as Senegal and Germany, they also demonstrated a very high level. But here’s the problem—these young players have almost no World Cup experience; most of them have never played in knockout matches at this level. The aura of the host team can sometimes be a double-edged sword. Too much pressure leads to distorted movements and missed coordination, and this is something that has happened repeatedly in past World Cups.

On Paraguay’s side, although they’re not as famous as the U.S., they have a huge advantage—defense. In the South American qualifiers, they conceded just 10 goals in 18 matches. This figure is top-tier even among the 32 World Cup teams. Paraguay’s tactics are extremely simple and brutal: a five-defender iron-bunker formation to hold firm, and then rely on Almirón (Newcastle United) and Enso to counterattack. This style is tailor-made to target teams that like to control possession but generally aren’t strong at breaking through. If the U.S. can’t wear them down for a long time, once the players start to grow impatient, gaps in the back line will be exposed—and at that point, Paraguay’s counterattacks could be devastating.

Opta, an authoritative data agency, has simulation results that are also quite interesting: they ran 10,000 simulations, and the U.S. win rate is only 39.8%, Paraguay’s is 33.6%, and draws are as high as 26.6%. What does this data show? It shows that, in the eyes of professional institutions, this match is simply not one-sided. Paraguay have won three of their last five matches and lost two; their form is actually steadier—1-0 over Greece, 2-1 over Mexico—and their ability to handle tough games shouldn’t be underestimated.

Last November, the two teams met in a friendly, with the U.S. edging a 2-1 win. But in that match, the U.S. was missing multiple key starters, so its reference value is limited. This time it’s a real World Cup group-stage clash, and it’s the host’s first match too—whether the U.S. can turn their advantage into three points is truly hard to say.

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