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After SpaceX goes public, two key milestones still require attention, as they will directly impact short-term stock supply and demand.
Before listing, SpaceX’s sky-high valuation has become a focal point of market discussion. However, as medium- to long-term investors, there are still two key milestones to watch after SpaceX goes public:
About 15 trading days after the IPO, around July 6-7: Nasdaq’s new fast-track access rules, specially designed for newly listed shares with ultra-large market caps, will determine whether SpaceX meets the inclusion requirements. If SpaceX is successfully added to the Nasdaq 100 index, passive funds are expected to flow in, totaling $8-18 billion.
In mid-early August, around August 11: SpaceX is expected to release its Q2 earnings report around then. After the earnings call, the stock will face its first major unlock within 48 hours, with about 10-15% of real sell pressure expected to emerge. Selling orders may pile up before and after the large unlock, but if demand is strong, the absorption capacity should be strong—so the share price may be able to absorb the sell pressure.