SpaceX priced at $135 to debut on Nasdaq, with a $1.77 trillion valuation behind it—an extreme pricing by the market of the “space + AI” vertical integration narrative. The fair value estimates provided by institutions such as Morningstar and Damodaran are only in the range of $780 billion to $1.3 trillion, leaving a gap of more than 55% versus the IPO pricing. The core disagreement is whether SpaceX should be viewed as a space infrastructure company or an AI-driven tech giant.

In recent analysis, it has generally been pointed out that its 52x price-to-sales ratio is far higher than that of large tech companies, but lower than some pure-play space peers. This valuation confusion reflects that investors are still classifying its business attributes—whether it is dominated by Starlink’s telecom cash flows, the infrastructure of rocket launches, or the model potential after the xAI merger driving the pricing.
The most critical detail lies in the “an over 80% probability of merging with Tesla by 2027” given by Wedbush Securities. This suggests that the capital chess game of the assets under Elon Musk is far from over. SpaceX’s listing may not be the endpoint, but instead provides highly liquid chips for more complex ecosystem integration and capital operations. The market’s fierce tug-of-war between short-term FOMO and long-term narratives has essentially paved the way for subsequent related transactions.
On June 12, today, SpaceX’s IPO was priced at $135, corresponding to an estimated valuation of about $1.77 trillion. SpaceX priced at $135 to debut on Nasdaq, with a $1.77 trillion valuation behind it—an extreme pricing by the market of the “space + AI” vertical integration narrative. The fair value estimates provided by institutions such as Morningstar and Damodaran are only in the range of $780 billion to $1.3 trillion, leaving a gap of more than 55% versus the IPO pricing. The core disagreement is whether SpaceX should be viewed as a space infrastructure company or an AI-driven tech giant.
Its 52x price-to-sales ratio is far higher than large tech companies, but lower than some pure-play space peers. This valuation confusion reflects that investors are still classifying its business attributes—whether it is dominated by Starlink’s telecom cash flows, the infrastructure of rocket launches, or the model potential after the xAI merger driving the pricing.
The most critical detail lies in the “an over 80% probability of merging with Tesla by 2027” given by Wedbush Securities. This suggests that the capital chess game of the assets under Elon Musk is far from over. SpaceX’s listing may not be the endpoint, but instead provides highly liquid chips for more complex ecosystem integration and capital operations. $NVDAB
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