Before the rebound this morning, Bitcoin had been in a state of “extreme fear” for a continuous week.

During the Asian session, the main forces began to reposition, and the rebound structure was completed in three phases: it broke above 62,000 with a surge in volume, touched the 64,000 level, then pulled back to confirm at 62,800 before pushing higher again.
This process liquidated a large number of short positions. According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation across the entire market in the past 24 hours was nearly $270 million, with short liquidations accounting for an absolute majority of the total liquidation amount for the whole period.
Currently, BTC is trading at around $63,500, with a 24-hour gain of over 3.5%.
This marks the strongest single-day rebound bullish candle since May 28.
The key structural variable is that—this rebound is not driven by new buying, but by short covering resulting from the unwinding of geopolitical risk premia.
This represents a major shift in price structure: switching from a phase of “indiscriminate macro risk sell-offs” to a repair-expectation phase of “digesting geopolitical tail-end risks.”
But it also means the rebound lacks fundamental-based buying, so it still needs to endure repeated tests at the secondary support level.
The PPI data has brought a bucket of cold water to this logic.
The data shows that the U.S. May PPI year-over-year increase reached 6.5%, the highest level since November 2022; the month-over-month jump surged 1.1%, far above expectations.
Commodity-side inflation pressure is still handing off the baton, and the transmission path from upstream to the consumer end has not been cut off.
An even more critical variable is the PPI energy price sub-component: in May, energy prices rose 10.7%, which provides double confirmation alongside the prior CPI data showing a 40.5% surge in gasoline.
After the PPI came in above expectations, the year-end cumulative rate-hike probabilities implied by CME FedWatch once again moved close to historical highs.
At present, the market is pricing in a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike in December with a probability of more than 60%.
Goldman Sachs has completely given up on expectations for a rate cut in 2026, and the tightening window within the year is still counting down.
The first FOMC meeting during Worsh’s term will be held on June 16–17; before that, there are 3 trading days left for the market to adjust and price expectations.
By then, how he responds to the double upside surprises in the PPI and CPI data will become a key reference point for June’s macro narrative.
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