SpaceX listed at $135—experts are arguing heatedly over the valuation! Morningstar says “cut it in half,” but Ron Baron sees $30 trillion.

SpaceX today (6/12) listed on NASDAQ at a fixed price of $135 per share, implying a valuation of about $1.77 trillion—setting the record for the largest IPO in U.S. stock history. But Wall Street’s views on its outlook are sharply divided.
(Background: The wildest IPO in U.S. stock history! SpaceX’s listing pulled in more than $70 billion in retail orders, nearly filling the total global fundraising amount.)
(Additional context: Is it worth investing in SpaceX’s IPO at $135 per share? SpaceX IPO date, share price, and how to buy)

Table of Contents

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• The Bearish Camp
• The Bullish Camp
• The Real Consensus

Key Highlights

• SpaceX listed on NASDAQ on 6/12 at $135 per share, with an estimated valuation of about $1.77 trillion, setting a record for the largest IPO in history.
• The Bearish Camp: Morningstar estimates fair value at only $780 billion (55% lower), while Aswath Damodaran estimates $1.3 trillion—about $100 per share.
• The Bullish Camp: Oppenheimer calls out a target price of $190 (+41%), while Ron Baron bets on SpaceX reaching over $30 trillion by 2040.

The most closely watched new stock in the world hit the market today. Elon Musk’s SpaceX listed on NASDAQ with a fixed offering price of $135 per share under ticker SPCX, implying a valuation of about $1.77 trillion, with fundraising expected to reach up to $75 billion—breaking the record for the largest IPO in U.S. stock history in one fell swoop. But more than the price itself, what’s really drawing attention is the fight on Wall Street.

This isn’t a debate about whether “SpaceX is good or bad.” Most people agree it’s a good company.

The Bearish Camp

The most direct cold splash comes from Morningstar. Analyst Nicholas Owens set SpaceX’s fair value at about $780 billion, roughly 55% lower than the $1.77 trillion IPO pricing—essentially implying that in nearly any near- to mid-term scenario, the stock is overvalued. His reasoning is fairly straightforward: right now, only Starlink is truly profitable, while xAI is projected to burn about $10 billion in 2026. Nicholas Owens advises investors to avoid chasing the stock at the open. Wait until the hype fades and the price pulls back before entering.

Nicknamed the “valuation guru,” New York University professor Aswath Damodaran is also bearish. He values SpaceX’s equity at between $1.25 trillion and $1.3 trillion—about $100 per share—far below the $135 offer price. Damodaran’s criticism is sharp. He says the potential market size of the AI business—$26 trillion—“has already entered fantasyland.” As for the space and connectivity businesses, they “hit the ceiling of a reasonable imagination.” And he delivers a tough line: “SpaceX’s value is driven by narrative.”

That said, he doesn’t plan to short it—he simply isn’t buying right away. Aswath Damodaran expects SpaceX’s IPO to replay the kind of script seen with Facebook or Uber: after listing, the stock could drop more than 50% at one point. He has chosen to stay in his own lane and patiently wait for lower levels.

John Blank, chief equity strategist at Chicago-based independent research firm Zacks, is even more pessimistic. If the share price falls 40% to 60% within a few months, it could trigger a chain of downward revisions to earnings forecasts. He views this IPO as a potential market-top signal.

The Bullish Camp

On the other side, the bulls are throwing out numbers that get bigger and bigger. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan gives a rating that’s better than the broader market, with a target price of $190—about 41% upside from the $135 offering price. He’s optimistic about SpaceX’s vertical integration across rockets, Starlink, chips, and AI, and projects the total addressable market could reach $10 trillion by 2035.

What truly tears the ceiling off comes from legendary investor Ron Baron. SpaceX is the largest holding in his fund. Of $55 billion in assets, he has $15 billion invested in SpaceX. As of now, he has already earned about a 1,312% return. Ron Baron predicts SpaceX could be worth over $30 trillion by 2040—an increase of more than 1,600% versus the implied IPO valuation. The value, he argues, mainly comes from Starlink’s ability to cover the globe, as well as Musk’s bet on space data centers, which he says are more efficient than ground-based systems.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest also backs the story. ARK endorses a valuation of $1.75 trillion as “justifiable,” and projects enterprise value could reach $2.5 trillion to $3.1 trillion by 2030. The reasons include: Starlink has already surpassed 10 million users; this year’s revenue is expected to top $20 billion; and reusable rockets have cut launch costs by about 95% since 2008.

Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities describes this IPO as a “watershed” event for the market, saying the probability that SpaceX and Tesla merge in 2027 is as high as 80% or more.

Even the cautious camp is leaning bullish. Futurum CEO Daniel Newman says that if you look at it from a 5-year perspective, $135 may look expensive after one year, but after five years it could look cheap.

The Real Consensus

With bulls and bears arguing loudly, they surprisingly reach agreement on one point: the stock will likely rise at the open, and retail investors should not chase it. The reason is that this time SpaceX is issuing entirely new shares (all-primary), with no existing shareholders cashing out—so the float is extremely small. On top of that, retail FOMO and passive buying by index funds to be included in indices such as the Nasdaq 100 skew the early supply-demand balance badly.

CNBC’s Mad Money host Jim Cramer takes this logic to the extreme. He admits it’s hard to value a stock with a $2 trillion market cap—equal to 100 times sales—and predicts that with retail enthusiasm, very limited float, and passive capital inflows, the opening could see a massive jump, with the market cap even doubling at one point and approaching $4 trillion. But Jim Cramer emphasizes that this is probably a speculative bubble with destructive effects on the broader market, and he strongly advises retail investors to avoid chasing the highs.

Jay Ritter, an IPO expert from the University of Florida, adds a warning from a governance perspective. He describes the “Musk effect” as bringing high volatility, noting that Musk holds about 82% of voting power through a dual-class share structure. He also suggests that capital may prioritize long-term plans like Mars rather than delivering immediate returns to shareholders.

This is not investment advice—please make your decision carefully.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is SpaceX’s IPO price? How high is the valuation?

SpaceX listed on NASDAQ on June 12 at a fixed price of $135 per share under ticker SPCX, implying a valuation of about $1.77 trillion, with fundraising expected to reach up to $75 billion—setting the record for the largest IPO in U.S. stock history.

Do analysts have a positive view of SpaceX’s post-listing performance?

Opinions are divided. Morningstar estimates fair value at only $780 billion, about 55% below the IPO price, while Aswath Damodaran estimates $1.3 trillion; but Oppenheimer calls for a target price of $190, and Ron Baron is more bullish, seeing $30 trillion by 2040. Many people agree that the stock could surge sharply at the open—and that retail investors shouldn’t chase it.