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Is the Iran-U.S. agreement coming into effect? The Strait of Hormuz will reopen. How will Bitcoin perform in the short term?
Latest news, Iran's Mehr News Agency confirmed that the U.S. and Iran have reached a memorandum of understanding, agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, while the U.S. will gradually release Iran's frozen overseas assets. This news directly breaks the ongoing geopolitical tension that lasted for half a month and also introduces short-term volatility to the crypto market.
From the essence of the agreement, it is a mutually beneficial transaction: Trump urgently needs a diplomatic achievement of Middle East peace for the midterm elections, while Iran desperately needs to reopen the strait to restore oil trade and unfreeze assets to ease domestic economic pressure. But uncertainties still exist: Netanyahu explicitly refuses to cease fire, and whether the agreement can be smoothly implemented remains doubtful.
For BTC, the current easing of geopolitical risks will promote a short-term rebound in risk appetite, and previously withdrawn safe-haven funds will phaseally flow back into risk assets. With the current price of BTC at 63,500, a pulse-like rebound is expected in the short term, with the first resistance level at 65,000-66,000. $BTC