SpaceX IPO is set to begin trading tonight! An estimated 4,400 people could become millionaires overnight in USD—but should you buy?

Elon Musk’s SpaceX will go public on the NASDAQ under the stock ticker SPCX, raising $75 billion, and is expected to turn more than 4,400 employees into millionaires. However, experts are sharply divided over its overvalued valuation.

SpaceX IPO launches tonight; SPCX will start trading on the NASDAQ

Big U.S. stock news! SpaceX, Elon Musk’s aerospace giant, has set the IPO offering price at $135 per share. It is expected to list on the U.S. NASDAQ tonight (6/12) at 9:30 PM Taiwan time, trading under the ticker symbol “SPCX.”

SpaceX IPO to raise $75 billion, becoming the largest IPO in history. Not only would it fully dilute SpaceX’s post-dilution market value to between $1.75 trillion and $1.8 trillion, but it also has the potential to make Musk’s 4,400 current and former employees millionaires overnight.

SpaceX 4,400 employees could become millionaires overnight

The wealth feast from SpaceX’s IPO is not limited to top executives. Analysis from investment platform Hill.com estimates that SpaceX expects to create more than 4,400 millionaires in this IPO, with about 400 people’s stock assets reaching more than $100 million.

A report by The New York Times says that Trevor Hise, a 37-year-old former launch engineer, entered SpaceX despite his parents’ opposition, and now he holds more than 100,000 shares. Based on the offering price, that comes to as much as $13.5 million (about NT$430 million), and he is already in a semi-retired state.

Another former launch engineer, Gavin Petit, joined in 2012. At the time, he chose to convert all the bonuses the company paid him into company stock. Although back then rocket launches repeatedly failed and the risk was extremely high, he has now accumulated more than 50,000 shares and likewise has successfully advanced to become a millionaire.

Unlike typical tech IPOs led by software and AI algorithms, SpaceX’s empire is built by stacking factories, launch pads, and manufacturing facilities. Musk not only needs code engineers, but also thousands of welders, mechanics, and technical personnel—many of whom receive stock as compensation.

Image source: Flickr, photographed by Steve Jurvetson—SpaceX Falcon 9 1.1 production line

Fortune also points out that Juan Hernandez, a Mexican-born former welder who joined in 2015, has stock holdings worth $880,000. Skillcat CEO Ruchir Shah said this proves that hands-on technical roles can also receive equity-based returns.

However, Jason Schloetzer, an associate professor at Georgetown University, reminds that this kind of compensation is often arranged through salary deductions to purchase stock, shifting more financial risk onto workers.

Should you rush to join the SpaceX IPO? Experts are divided

In the face of this historic IPO, is now a good time to get in? Business Insider and Reuters have compiled views from various sides.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is optimistic, saying this is a turning point for the space and AI sectors, and predicting that there is as high as an 80% chance that Musk will merge SpaceX and Tesla (Tesla) before 2027.

But Jim Cramer, a host of the CNBC show who is dubbed the “contrarian indicator” by internet users, warns that SpaceX’s strong demand could push its valuation to an unsustainable peak.

Renowned short-seller Jim Chanos also said bluntly that SpaceX’s valuation is supported entirely by “hope and dreams,” and that it is not worth $1.75 trillion within the next 5 years; independent analyst Nicolas Owens from Morningstar believes SpaceX’s fair valuation should be nearly 50% lower than the IPO pricing.

• Related report: Is the SpaceX IPO worth buying? Independent firms set a $63 target price, far below the $135 offering price

Investment expert Altug Dincturk also points out that historically, high-profile stocks often perform poorly in the early stage after listing. About half of the stocks face negative returns in the first year. Andy VandenBerg, founder of VDB Wealth, also reminds that among the most recent 30 large tech IPOs, the largest average drop in the first year reached as high as 55%.

Putting together the experts’ views, the key points of both bulls and bears are as follows:

• Bulls focus on SpaceX’s irreplaceable dominance in the space industry, along with forced buying pressure from passive funds, viewing this as an excellent opportunity to participate in the future tech revolution.
• Bears point to SpaceX’s extreme revenue-to-valuation ratio, unknown technical challenges in space data center technology, and post-IPO institutional selling pressure. They argue that the high premium has already prepaid several years of future growth potential.

Whether this once-in-a-century feast involving the space industry, traditional finance, and blockchain tokenization markets will, like Tesla, create another “unstoppable short-sellers’ myth” that defies common sense, or whether—like most historical megas IPOs—it will sink into a long correction after the hype fades, is now testing global investors’ faith in Elon Musk personally and their ability to withstand real risks.

Further reading:
SpaceX IPO landed major orders before launch: Google puts $30 billion into compute capacity—making the $1.75 trillion valuation more believable?