Plunge followed by a violent rebound! The 4020 life-and-death line holds, aiming for 4250!

On Friday, gold surged to 4555 at the close but faced resistance and pulled back; today during Asian trading, it tested the bottom at 4023, a key support level, then rebounded violently, currently trading around 4199. Overall, it shows a "bottoming out and rising, oversold correction" oscillation pattern, with bulls and bears engaged in a heated battle. The 4020-4050 range is a short-term bullish lifeline; holding above it could mean the technical rebound continues, while breaking below opens the door for a new downward move.

The technical outlook remains bearish, but oversold signals are prominent: the daily TRIX trend indicator continues to show a death cross downward, MACD fast and slow lines are below zero, and although the green bars have slightly contracted, the bearish dominance remains unchanged; the moving average system is in a bearish alignment, with prices under the 5-day moving average, and the 10-day moving average at 4340 forming strong resistance. On the 4-hour chart, RSI quickly rebounded from around 20, indicating a short-term technical correction after oversold conditions, but prices have entered a previous dense trading zone between 4200-4260, with selling pressure gradually increasing, upward momentum clearly weakening, and facing resistance at the upper Bollinger Band. This rebound is mainly driven by Trump’s temporary suspension of Iran sanctions, short covering, and safe-haven capital flows, representing a technical correction after a sharp decline. The core logic of high interest rates suppressing gold prices remains unchanged, and upward space is limited.

Steady strategy: Short positions can be taken in the 4240–4260 and 4300–4320 zones, with targets at 4180–4150; if prices stabilize after falling to the 4130–4150 zone, small long positions can be tried with a stop loss at 4100, targeting 4190–4220; if broken below, continue to watch for a move below 4100.