Trump Tacos Again.

“Trump Always Chickens Out”—this abbreviation has become standard vocabulary.

Every time there’s talk of attacking Iran → markets crash → he says, “Forget it, we won’t attack” → markets rally hard.

This time is no exception: the NASDAQ rose 3.5% to a one-year high, the semiconductor index surged 8%, Samsung rose 9.5%, and SK Hynix rose 9.1%.

A week ago, the market was waiting for rate hikes and a selloff. A week later, it jumped because “they’re not doing it after all.”

This is the reality of today’s market:

Geopolitical risk isn’t a fundamental factor—it’s an excuse.

When markets rise, they say “rate-cut expectations are heating up”; when markets fall, they say “geopolitical risk is heating up”—but really, it’s all emotion looking for reasons.

The kind of gains you see from Samsung and Hynix—this surge in the double combination of an “oversold rebound + sentiment repair”—is not “a turnaround in semiconductor demand.”

But the market doesn’t care about the why; it only cares whether it’s up today.

The question is: how long can TACO last?

As for whether the weekend agreement can be signed—no one knows yet.

If it gets signed, oil prices could fall another 15%; if it doesn’t, Trump will tweet again to criticize Iran—

Then the market will have to ride another rollercoaster, from “celebration” to “panic.”

This kind of rally driven by “not fighting” comes fast—and goes even faster. $MU