On June 11, according to CNBC, Wall Street generally believes that the stock market has the capacity to absorb the new stock supply brought by the SpaceX IPO, but investors remain concerned about the volatility caused by subsequent large-scale AI-related IPOs and financing waves. Data from Gavekal Research shows that within 12 months until September 2025, S&P 500 companies will have issued approximately $1.7 trillion in stocks, about $140 billion per month. The organization believes that SpaceX's estimated fundraising scale of $75 billion is only slightly more than two weeks' worth of shareholder dividends. From the overall size of the U.S. stock market, these stock issuances are "surprisingly easy to digest," so the liquidity withdrawal's drag on U.S. stocks should be short-term.

Not just SpaceX, but companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Alphabet are also seeking financing in the public markets. Including SpaceX, four companies plan to raise a total of about $380 billion, equivalent to roughly two months of issuance. However, IPOs themselves are usually associated with higher volatility. Truist Wealth's review of 30 large IPOs over the past 15 years shows that newly listed company stocks tend to decline and experience significant pullbacks within the first year after listing, with a median decline of 9% and an average maximum drawdown of 54% in the first year. The SpaceX IPO could also trigger internal rotation within tech stocks, with investors selling existing winners to fund new stock offerings. Signs of this have already appeared this week, as investors shifted from high-flying chip stocks to defensive sectors like consumer staples.

Additionally, changes in NASDAQ rules could amplify volatility. When SpaceX is included in the NASDAQ 100 index, it will not be weighted based solely on the $75 billion of tradable circulating shares but will instead use a 3x multiplier, effectively calculating its weight based on a $2.25 trillion market cap. This means that post-IPO stock price movements could be exaggerated by passive fund chasing. The participation of retail investors in the SpaceX IPO is unprecedented. Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, expressed concern that this could lead many people to have negative experiences and stated that SpaceX "is not a lottery ticket," but a long-term investment that requires time to realize its valuation. #美国5月CPI创三年新高