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Gold, Do Not Chase the Desperate
Gold, yesterday announced May's CPI data, previous 3.8, expected 4.2, actual 4.2.
CPI data has climbed from 2.4 in February to the latest 4.2, and gold prices have retraced 28% from their all-time high.
The CPI data has turned upward, and expectations of rate hikes are heating up, which is bearish for gold.
The logic is like this. CPI data is actually easy to resolve; just drop the oil prices.
Once the war ends, oil prices can fall.
Gold has already broken the low of May 23rd and also fell below the MA60, so is gold like that stock market, full of mud and sand?
I think not: 1. After the 2011 all-time high, it oscillated for two years before coming down.
2. Major country central banks are still increasing their gold holdings.
So, based on my understanding of gold, it won't directly enter a bear market; there will be repeated opportunities later.
The long lower shadow on the February 2nd daily chart rebounded, and the long lower shadow on the March 23rd daily chart rebounded.
Currently, it broke below the previous low without a lower shadow, indicating that buying pressure is not stronger than selling pressure.
Currently, going long on gold is a left-side trade.
Paper gold and gold ETFs are okay, but leverage is not; leverage can only be used on the right side.
Therefore, for those who like to hold gold long-term, this position is suitable for opening positions in paper gold or gold ETFs, but not full positions—buy in batches.
When to buy?
Next Thursday's Federal Reserve meeting.
If gold can reverse next Thursday, then the last buy can be completed.
This method involves buying within a vague range; even if caught later, there are opportunities to break even and profit.
A profit of 15-20% should be possible, and it is also recommended to sell in batches.
After reducing positions, keep a core holding to wait for the next wave.
Gold won't keep falling endlessly; it will likely enter a long-term wide-range oscillation.
For leveraged trading, good luck to us.