Analyst: Bitcoin On-Chain Funds Experience Significant Outflows, Market Is Entering a Capitulation-Driven Sell-Off

June 10, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released an analysis report indicating that the Bitcoin market is undergoing a notable capital outflow and loss-driven sell-off.

Data shows that the net realized market value change rate of Bitcoin over the past 30 days has dropped to -1.1%, marking the first time since mid-March that capital outflows have reached such a severe level.

Specifically, Bitcoin's realized market value has fallen from a peak of approximately $1.087 trillion in mid-May to $1.075 trillion, a total outflow of about $12 billion.

In June, this indicator also rapidly worsened from -0.15% on June 1 to -1.1% on June 8. This may suggest that the current capital outflow is accelerating significantly.

However, when comparing the current capital outflow indicator with the market sell-off in March, the current level remains well below the peak at that time. The indicator had reached -2.4%, indicating there was still room for further deterioration in the market.

According to market trading behavior, the sold Bitcoin aSOPR SMA-30 (the 30-day moving average of the adjusted SOPR, which reflects profit and loss ratios) has been below 1 for 13 consecutive days since falling below 1 on May 28. The current value is 0.987, meaning the average loss per transaction is about 1.3%.

Additionally, prolonged periods of aSOPR below 1 are typically seen as a sign of weak hands being shaken out. Therefore, before this indicator recovers to 1.0, the selling pressure may continue to dominate.

In summary, these two core indicators clearly suggest that the market has entered a panic sell-off phase. This ongoing on-chain fund outflow is mainly driven by capitulation selling from losing investors.

#比特币 #Loss-driven sell-off