## 1. Macro Market Logic Overview

1. **Tonight’s core event:** U.S. May CPI data will be released at **20:30 Beijing time on June 10**.

- **CPI higher than expected** → the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields jump higher, the overall crypto market turns risk-off and sells off sharply, mirroring last Friday’s sell-off trend triggered by negative data;

- **CPI lower than expected** → a short-term positive rebound, but the medium-term “price-setting point” will be next week’s **6.16–6.17 Federal Reserve meeting** (**2:00 a.m. on 6.18** for the decision + press conference). The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged, but there’s a high probability that the remarks will be hawkish.

2. **Cycle positioning:** The uptrend driven by the bulls has ended; long-term, mid-term, and short-term **triple bearish trends** dominate. There is no bottom-formation to confirm stabilization for the bulls yet—so you can only lightly position to bet on an oversold rebound, while taking heavy long positions is extremely risky.

3. **Key trading principles:** **Short positions first**; be **extremely cautious** with long positions. If using high leverage, **must reduce position size** and **strictly use stop-losses**—the double-window volatility from **CPI + the Fed meeting/interest-rate decision window** will amplify **blow-up/liquidation risk**.