6.9 Market Analysis—Simplified Version

Trend Direction: Consolidation Slightly Bearish

Technical Analysis:

BTC's key resistance levels around 64,742 and ETH's key resistance levels around 1,718 still have not been effectively broken through, and the market has entered a consolidation phase. A wave of pullback appeared in the early session, supported by the 4H MA30. BTC's consolidation range is compressed between the 4H MA30 and the 1H MA30, while ETH is compressed between the 4H MA30 and the 1H MA180. As the consolidation time extends, the space for consolidation will become smaller, and a direction may be chosen tonight.

As of the time of writing, BTC's current rebound upward trend line has not been broken, while ETH has broken below it, but it is common for ETH to break and then recover the upward trend line. Therefore, the focus remains on whether BTC's upward trend line will break. No clear bearish signals have been observed yet. If the upward trend line is broken and a new low is created, combined with bearish patterns on 15-minute to 1H candlesticks, a more cautious right-side short position can be considered.

The 4H, 12H, and daily moving averages still show bearish divergence suppression. The market has rebounded significantly from the current level. It is recommended not to chase long positions. Either consider light long positions on retracements to HVN (not recommended to bet on longs), or wait to see if the key resistance levels mentioned above are broken. If broken, then consider chasing longs.

Overall, the market has entered the final stage of consolidation, and a trend reversal is likely to be seen today. Personally, I prefer a left-side shorting approach. As mentioned in yesterday's article, because the last short position at 1717 was not successfully executed, the average short price is not ideal. However, if the conditions for a long setup mentioned above are not met, I will continue to hold this short position, with a temporary take-profit at 1542 for half of the position, and the remaining half will be protected with a stop order at 1498. The first half aims to bet on the downward market not making a new low (target price 1512-1538), while the second half bets on a new low (target price 1471-1496).

Although I have already established a short position, this does not mean I recommend following my trades. It is safer to wait for clear signals on the right side before acting.

Support and Resistance Areas:

BTC

Support: 59,612-61,453, 55,587-58,186, 48,941-53,359 (broad range)

Resistance: 63,067-63,683, near 64,753, 65,178-66,406, 67,426-68,706

ETH

Support: 1,471-1,496, 1,408-1,453, 1,167-1,341 (broad range)

Resistance: 1,646-1,671, 1,688-1,718, 1,750-1,772, 1,819-1,872