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How to tell whether the U.S. stock market is in a healthy pullback or a real crash? Watch three indicators.
**Indicator 1:** Has the profit growth rate turned negative?
The core driver of the long-term rise in U.S. stocks is that corporate profits are growing. As long as profits are still increasing, the pullback is technical.
In the Q1 earnings season, the S&P 500’s overall profit growth rate is 28.6%, the best quarter in the past three years. Nvidia, Micron, Marvell, and Broadcom’s latest-quarter revenue growth rates are, respectively: