Polymarket “Probability that Israel will close its airspace before June 30” rises to 64%, with a 52% increase over 24H

ME News message. On June 8 (UTC+8), Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of “Israel will close its airspace before June 30” has risen to 64%, up 52% over the past 24 hours. In addition, the probability of “Israel will close its airspace before June 15” has risen to 59%, up 52% over the past 24 hours.

“Closing airspace” refers to Israel’s entire civilian airspace, or a closure that covers most of Israel’s civilian airspace—through closure measures, flight cancellations, or a comprehensive suspension of commercial aviation, including commercial flights transiting through, arriving at, and departing from that airspace.

A qualifying closure must apply to flights across all of Israel, or to a large portion of Israel’s airspace that meets the criteria. Limited-scope flight cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops, or partial regional closures do not meet the conditions for settlement as “Yes.”

If, under the backdrop of a large-scale closure, there are a few exceptions—for example, allowing some pre-approved flights to pass—this will not affect the closure being recognized as valid. Warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions issued by airlines or other countries outside Israel cannot be considered sufficient grounds for settlement as “Yes.”

After the ceasefire between the U.S., Israel, and Iran on April 8, Iran today launched missiles at Israel again for the first time in two months.

Trump said that his advice to Iran is that since the missiles have already been launched, they should return to the negotiating table and reach an agreement. Trump also said he would call Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to tell him not to retaliate.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets and observe changes before pricing. (Source: ODAILY)