#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 This Week's U.S. Stock Trading Guide

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 This Week's U.S. Stock Trading Guide

Macro Analysis
Last Friday saw a rare sharp decline, with several reasons:
1. Strong non-farm payroll data increased expectations of rate hikes, causing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise above 4.5%. Although the market surged in the past two months, ignoring data effects, this old issue is always remembered and can be used to trigger a sell-off when needed.
2. AVGO's earnings guidance fell short of expectations, leading to profit-taking in previously overbought chip stocks, including storage stocks which also saw significant pullbacks.
3. Major IPOs. SpaceX is set to go public this week, raising hundreds of billions of dollars. Historically, the market tends to pull back five days before a major IPO; besides SpaceX, giants like Anthropic and OpenAI are also preparing for IPOs, with market caps exceeding one trillion dollars and raising hundreds of billions. The simultaneous IPOs of three giants have increased capital outflows.
These three factors caused the rare big drop on Friday. After the decline started on Wednesday, a strong rebound on Thursday was confusing, masking the Friday plunge, leaving many users heavily loss-making on their holdings.

The market trend this week is expected to be a slight rebound on Monday and Tuesday due to oversold conditions last Friday, with a fluctuation range of 7400-7500. The listing of SPCX on Friday puts significant pressure on the market this week; next week, the Federal Reserve's rate decision and Powell’s first appearance will be very important and sensitive. If CPI data is high, expectations of rate hikes will intensify, and the market could continue to fall. Therefore, even if there is a rebound on Monday and Tuesday, the market remains fragile. If major players start selling, further declines are possible. Do not rush to buy the dip. The IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are the core reasons for recent and upcoming market declines, compounded by next week’s yen rate hikes, which are a big risk; closely monitor U.S. Treasury yields and the yen exchange rate.

This decline is a technical correction after a sustained rally, also a safe-haven response to the policy uncertainty in mid-June and yen rate hikes. Before June 18, the market faces higher risk of decline. The correct approach now is to reduce positions, maintaining 30-40% of holdings, and hold core stocks in hot sectors like computing power, chips, and optical modules. If they rebound, they will rebound more strongly; if they fall, they will be more resilient, and adding positions at psychological support levels is advisable.

This week’s focus is on earnings reports from ORCL and ADBE:
ORCL: Last September’s earnings surged 35%, offering opportunities for 100x and 1000x options. Since then, ORCL’s stock has been weak due to concerns over excessive capital expenditure; if capital expenditure continues to expand and debt rises, the stock may decline further. If earnings beat expectations and debt concerns are alleviated, it will rally. Implied volatility in options suggests about a 12% potential move up or down. ADBE: Last earnings report caused a sharp drop because it did not reflect AI business directions and profits, risking being replaced by AI. If this quarter’s report still fails to show AI results, the stock may continue to fall; if it finds a clear AI strategy, it could surge. ADBE’s executives are honest and conservative, less prone to hype, so the probability of the latter is higher.

Sector Analysis
SpaceX is expected to go public on June 12. Due to limited allocation, subscription ratios have exceeded 20x, with a one-year lock-up for existing shareholders. The first-day rise is likely around 20%. This is a direct negative for ASTS and also negative for RKLB, which drained sector funds. Recommended to buy SATS+GOOGSATS: holding 2.1% stake; GOOG: holding 4.8%.

Data Center - Computing Power
Data center computing power demand is already lagging behind, continue buying and holding.
NBIS+IREN: Batches at 205, 180, 160
IREN: Batches at 48, 42, 33

Data Center - Chips and Optical Modules
Last week’s correction was a short-term profit-taking, fundamentals unchanged, buy on dips and hold.
Lite+GLW: Batches at 850, 700
GLW: Batches at 162, 130

Drones
U.S. Department of Defense increased drone funding for 2027, recent stock prices are relatively low, suitable for buying on dips. AVAV+UMAC+RCAT

Major Events This Week
June 8, Monday
Pre-market earnings: Fuel Cell Energy (FCEL), Optical Cable (OCC)
Major event: Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC26) at 01:00 the next day.
Important data: 23:00 U.S. May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, 3.64%
June 9, Tuesday
Important data: 18:00 U.S. May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, 95.9
20:15 U.S. weekly ADP employment change (in ten thousand), 3.575
June 10, Wednesday
Post-market earnings: Oracle (ORCL)
Important data: 20:30 U.S. May seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, 0.60%, 0.50%
20:30 U.S. May core CPI monthly rate, 0.40%, 0.30%
20:30 U.S. May unadjusted CPI annual rate, 3.80%, 4.20%
20:30 U.S. May unadjusted core CPI annual rate, 2.80%, 2.90%
June 11, Thursday
Post-market earnings: Lennar (LEN), Adobe (ADBE)
Important data: 20:30 U.S. weekly initial jobless claims (in ten thousand), 22.5, 21.9
20:30 U.S. May PPI monthly rate, 1.40%, 0.7%, not yet released
20:30 U.S. May PPI annual rate, 6.00%, 6.4%, not yet released
June 12, Friday
SPCX IPO: usually around 2 PM during trading
Important data: 22:00 U.S. June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary, 44.8, 46
22:00 U.S. June 1-year inflation expectations preliminary, 4.80%