ETH at $1680, did you cut your losses?

First look at the surface: terrible, really damn terrible.

It has fallen 15% in the past week, 26% in a month, from last August's high of 4946 to now, losing two-thirds outright. Although it only bounced less than 1% in 24 hours, the price still hovers at 1680, just a needle away from the previous low of 1560. The weekly chart remains in a downtrend, all EMAs are pressing overhead, and the bear flag pattern hasn't broken— but the 4-hour RSI has bounced from the historical oversold zone, signaling a technical rebound.

First thing: what you see as a "collapse," I see as a "leverage wipeout."

Yesterday, countless longs were liquidated across the entire network.

In 2022, when it dropped from 4800 to 880, it was the same script.

And then? In 2023, it rose to 2100, and in 2024, it hit 4000.

What’s the “bad news” this time? CPI at 3.8%, the Federal Reserve not cutting rates, ETF outflows slightly. But do you know?

- Since its launch, ETH spot ETF has still net inflows totaling over $6.8 billion

- DeFi TVL remains at $99 billion, L2s process millions of transactions daily

- Lido staking data remains solid, Glamsterdam upgrade (EIP-8037, etc.) is progressing

Second thing: how cheap is ETH at $1680?

ATH of 4946, now 1680— a 66% drop.

Let’s look at the fundamentals:

- ETH annual staking yield of 3-5%, with a large portion of the 120M circulating supply locked

- EIP-1559 is still burning tokens, deflationary properties unchanged

- Institutions continue to add via ETFs, Grayscale is outflowing but BlackRock is stepping in

Third thing: a “strange” signal appears on the technical side

Daily and weekly charts look ugly— EMA bearish alignment, bear flag consolidation.

But on the 4-hour chart, RSI rebounded from a historical low (below 20) to 47, with oversold divergence appearing three times.

Every decline, selling pressure is exhausted.

Bull-bear showdown, see for yourself.

One side says:

- June is historically the weakest month for ETH

- CPI at 3.8%, Fed not cutting rates, liquidity tightening

- ETF outflows continue small, institutions are hedging short-term

- Weekly chart still in downtrend, trend hasn't reversed

The other side says:

- RSI monthly chart hits all-time lows, three oversold divergences

- Price has fallen 66%, approaching historical limits

- Fundamentals (DeFi/L2/staking) are perfectly fine

- Once CPI drops or the Fed shifts, ETH has the greatest market rebound potential

Key level at 1680, just 280 away from the bottom at 1400.

Resistance above: 1810 → 1900 → 2000

Support below: 1560 → 1520 → 1400-1450

Conservative approach:

Wait for a dip to 1400-1520 zone to build positions gradually (spot). Stop-loss at 1380, target 1850-2000 (30-40% rebound).

Aggressive approach:

Light long positions around 1690 (spot or low leverage), stop-loss at 1650, aim to quickly take half profits at 1810. If it holds above 1810, add more to target 2000. Note: this is a rebound play, not bottom-fishing.

Long-term believers:

Start DCA below 1700, add every 5% dip. Hold until 2027, target 4000+. The real bull market will start after the Fed cuts rates, with ETH leading the rally.

Risk management (must read):

- Total position no more than 30%

- Strict stop-loss, don’t hold through big drops

- Watch CPI data on June 10 and FOMC on June 17— if inflation exceeds expectations again, reduce positions and wait

ETH now is like late 2022 at $880—

Back then, everyone said “Ethereum is going to zero,” but a year later, it hit 4000.

Bull markets aren’t without pullbacks, but every time they dip, you think “this #分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 time is different.”