Trump's approval rating on the economy drops to a new low during his term, Republicans worry about midterm election prospects

Mars Finance News, June 8 — The latest polls show that, affected by the escalation of the Middle East situation and the rebound in inflation pressures, U.S. President Trump’s approval rating on economic issues has fallen to the lowest level during his current term, and his long-standing “economic card” is now being tested.

The market generally expects that, influenced by the Iran conflict and supply chain tensions, the U.S. inflation rate may return to the 4% level for the first time since 2023.

Although the White House is trying to ease market concerns by increasing tax refunds and emphasizing energy reserves, persistently rising oil prices have weakened the effectiveness of these policies.

Trump recently said he will not adjust his Iran policy due to election pressure, and he downplayed the impact of price fluctuations—actions that have raised concerns among some Republicans.

Former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney warned that if U.S. gasoline prices remain above $4 per gallon before Labor Day, the Republican Party’s situation in the midterm elections will face “serious trouble.”

Treasury Secretary Benson thinks that as the situation eases, energy prices will quickly fall back.

However, Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said that even if the conflict cools, damaged energy infrastructure and the risk premium tied to geopolitics could still keep oil prices high, thereby continuing to squeeze consumer spending.

Despite the AI investment boom driving expansion in manufacturing and U.S. stocks repeatedly hitting new highs, analysts point out that the U.S. economy is showing characteristics of a “K-shaped recovery,” with capital markets clearly benefiting, while the real income of ordinary households has shrunk for the first time in nearly three years.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis said that if the party cannot respond to the cost-of-living pressures faced by ordinary voters, it may suffer a severe blow in the November elections.

Analysts believe that, amid slowing economic growth and a rebound in inflation, if energy prices and living costs cannot clearly decline in the short term, the economic pressure stemming from geopolitical conflicts may further evolve into political risk.