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The market is pricing in Fed rate hikes again.
After the strong jobs report, swaps were fully pricing in a 25 bp hike by December. The probability of a hike as early as October rose to around 60%.
The 2-year UST yield climbed to 4.191%, its highest level in more than a year. The 10-year UST yield rose to 4.53-4.57%.
The short end of the curve is rising faster than the long end. The market is revising Fed expectations toward a tighter policy path.
For risk assets, this is negative: liquidity is becoming more expensive again.