AxelAdlerJr

Brent fell 3.4% yesterday to $100.34 per barrel. Supply concerns have eased: Saudi Arabia is restoring exports, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising. According to CENTCOM, oil and LNG shipments through the strait reached a six-month high over the past two weeks. Satellite data show that over the past six days Saudi Arabia shipped an average of 2.9 million b/d through Hormuz, compared with 0.7 million b/d in August.
Overall vessel traffic through the strait, however, remains well below pre-war levels.

Bitcoin is trading above its 365-day average for the first time since November 2025. Trend Pulse has returned to bull mode after nine days in neutral.
Key level: $80.5K. A drop back below it and into the $76 - 79K range would make the breakout false.
Full breakdown in Morning Brief #262 👇

1. Is the transition to a bull market complete?
2. What does the BTC-to-gold ratio tell us about the Bear/Bull regime shift?
3. Why are long-term holders realizing losses as prices rise?
4. Where will price go, and what target should we expect?
The answers are in Weekly Engine #113 👇

Oil prices have started to decline - a good sign to kick off the week.

The 30D Compression Score is back in extreme territory at 93.9%. This is the fourth such episode since the bear phase began.
What sets this one apart: for the past 20 days price has been testing the yearly moving average without managing to hold above it, so the squeeze is building right into resistance. This is the moment to take a side.

Since August 27, price is down 4.9% while open interest has climbed from 319k to 335k BTC.
Over the past year this combination showed up 21 times. Five were followed by a 15% rally, another five by a 16% drawdown. The remaining eleven went nowhere.

Brent crude fell below $102 a barrel on Friday, declining for a third straight session as fears of Middle East supply disruptions eased and optimism grew over renewed diplomatic efforts to end the conflict and restore energy flows.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held at 4.93% after falling nearly 10 basis points in the previous session, retreating from a 19-year high as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns.

Bitcoin rose 1.5% to $77.4K. Buyers gained the upper hand, but have held it for only 4 hours.
Yesterday, a similar signal faded within the next hour.
In Morning Brief #260, we examine what’s supporting the recovery and what would confirm sustained buying pressure.

In today’s Market State Report #2, we look at the implications of the Fed rate hike, the projections of meeting participants, and the signals about future policy.
What does this change for stocks and Bitcoin? What signs of market reaction should we be watching now?

BTC short-term holders’ profit cushion has narrowed from 10% to 7% over the past week.
Bitcoin is trading at $76.2K. Their average purchase price is $71.3K.
The exchange inflow P/L indicator is near zero. What would confirm mounting pressure on holders?
We break it down in Morning Brief #259👇

Over the past 24 hours, open interest increased by 10K BTC.

On September 15, the U.S. Senate blocked the CLARITY Act from advancing: 49 votes in favor, short of the 60 required. The procedural vote failed, but the bill can still be reconsidered.
One of the main sticking points was disagreement over restrictions on public officials and their families profiting from crypto ventures.

The market is pricing in a 92% chance of a Fed rate hike.
The S&P 500 fell after 5 of the 7 first rate hikes since 1988.
What does this mean for stocks and Bitcoin? We break it down in Morning Brief #258👇

Brent rose above $107 a barrel. The shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz following a drone attack, along with the postponement of talks between Gulf states and Iran, heightened concerns over supply disruptions.

Bitcoin has entered compression again after August’s short squeeze. Bollinger Band width = 4.81%.
In Morning Brief #257, we examine what would confirm a breakout from the range and which levels to watch.