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Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 2.93% - the highest level since 1996.
This matters beyond Japan. The higher JGB yields go, the less incentive Japanese capital has to move into US Treasuries and other foreign assets.
For now, this is not a signal to sell risk assets. But the market is approaching an important point:
JGB > 3% + further BOJ rate hikes + a stronger yen + rising US Treasury yields.
If these factors align, Japan's rate normalization could turn into a global tightening of financial conditions and hit stocks and Bitcoin.

After the Coldcard hack, 134.8K BTC of old coins were no longer counted in LTH Supply, distorting a key holder signal.
Is Bitcoin really turning, or do the data just make it look that way?
Weekly Engine #109: enter now or keep waiting?
Verdict inside 👇

After the Coldcard hack, LTH Supply fell by 134.8K BTC from its July 29 level to a local low on August 3.
The scale of old-coin movement largely explains the sharp rise in Dormancy after the incident.

Bitcoin Average Coin Dormancy 30D MA rose to 19 days and moved above the 365D MA for the first time since the start of the year.
Older coins are becoming active again. But after the Coldcard hack, part of this increase may be linked not to selling, but to large-scale BTC transfers to new wallets.
So the current rise in Dormancy should not automatically be interpreted as distribution by LTHs.

July core CPI confirmed further cooling in underlying inflation, easing to 2.5% YoY from 2.6% in June and 2.9% in May. If this trend continues, a shift toward Fed policy easing later in 2026 remains realistic.
For Bitcoin, this could provide a strong catalyst and create the conditions for a new bullish phase in Q4 2026.

The series finale. You've learned to read the market and build the verdict in Part 9 we close the final link: how to turn the verdict into a concrete action.

Gold climbed back above $4,400 an ounce on Wednesday, recovering losses from the previous session. Investors are awaiting key US inflation data that could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Bitcoin volatility has compressed to 4% - one of the narrowest ranges in two years. ADX has fallen to 11, confirming an almost complete lack of trend. The probability of a sharp move is rising, but the direction remains unknown.
Which indicators will be the first to confirm the direction of the breakout?
Full analysis in Morning Brief #233 👇

Brent rose above $89 a barrel during trading, extending its gains to four consecutive sessions. Oil prices are rising as hopes fade for a U.S. - Iran agreement that could end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
If Brent holds above $90 a barrel, it will increase inflation risks and reduce the likelihood of policy easing. The Fed will have to account for rising energy costs as the labor market weakens, with payrolls falling by 23,000 in July.

Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score has fallen below its mean but remains above zero. The price is holding 13% above the market's average cost basis.
A break below $57.6K would mark the first serious deterioration and open the way to a deep-stress zone.
Full analysis in Morning Brief #231 👇

LTH SOPR has fallen to 0.92. It looks like long-term holders are capitulating. But Bitcoin still trades 30% above their average cost basis of $49.3K.
Newer LTH coins are realizing losses. The main stress remains concentrated among short-term holders.
Morning Brief 230 👇

Risk appetite ticked up but stays neutral.

Bitcoin has climbed to $64.6K, but the demand indicator has remained negative for five straight months.
The rebound still lacks fuel - I break down what that means in Morning Brief 229 👇