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AxelAdlerJr

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Today, G7 finance ministers are meeting in Paris. Among the key topics is volatility in global bond markets after a sell-off driven by rising inflation risks amid the conflict in the Middle East.
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European stocks started the week lower, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment across global markets.
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Global Risk On/Off Indicator
👇
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The U.S. Dollar Index moved above 99 on Monday, trading near a six-week high, as rising inflation pressure linked to the Middle East conflict strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates later this year.
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$82K rejected. Again.
Bitcoin failed there three times. STH-SOPR still can't hold above 1.0 - short-term holders are selling every rally.
Now oil is near $106, the Dow dropped 537 points, and rates risk staying higher for longer.
Weekly Engine #96: why this is still not a confirmed recovery. 👇
BTC-2.18%
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FenerliBaba:
To The Moon 🌕
Volatility-adjusted Rainbow Chart: the model-implied fair value is $177K. That implies a discount of roughly 55%relative to BTC’s current price, meaning the market is trading well below the model trajectory of the current halving cycle.
At the same time, the model does not rule out further downside and does not exclude the possibility that over the next ~6 months, price could move materially lower.
BTC-2.18%
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Brent crude futures are holding above $107 per barrel and are on track for a weekly gain of more than 5% as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict between the US and Iran continue to stall, while the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
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The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose above 4.5%, reaching its highest level in a year, amid mounting inflationary pressure linked to the war in Iran. This, in turn, strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again later this year.
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US retail sales rose 0.5% m/m in April, matching expectations but slowing from March's revised 1.6%. Even with larger tax refunds, consumer demand stayed soft.
Rising fuel costs are becoming a clear risk for lower-income households and the broader consumption outlook.
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💦 Water cooler talk: The first day of talks between the US and Chinese leaders had no noticeable impact on the markets.
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Bitcoin hit $82K three times.
Three times it got rejected.
Same pattern every time:
STH SOPR touches 1.0
then rolls over
and price fades.
Short-term holders are selling into every rally.
This is not just technical resistance.
It is behavioral supply.
What breaks the trap -> Morning Brief #170
BTC-2.18%
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Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chair by a 54-45 Senate vote - the most partisan confirmation for a Fed chair on record, and the narrowest margin since Senate approval became required in 1977.
At his confirmation hearing, Warsh pledged to keep monetary policy strictly independent.
ON0.48%
IN-2.59%
AT-2.15%
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Bitcoin pushed above $82K in May. Average funding never turned positive once. Traders were hedging the rally, not chasing it.
Now taker pressure is down 35-40% from the May 6 peak.
The move looked strong. The conviction never was.
☕️ Morning Brief #169 👇
BTC-2.18%
IN-2.59%
MAY-6.58%
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What a real Bitcoin bottom looks like historically and why the 2026 correction didn't qualify.
SQL of the Week 020: NUPL–MVRV Harmonic Composite.👇
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Bitcoin has crossed the halfway point to the next halving.
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Brent is holding near $106 as no meaningful new de-escalation signals have emerged in the Middle East, negotiations still show no visible progress, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
In the UK, pressure on rates and the pound also intensified after PM Keir Starmer signaled he is not stepping down despite growing calls for his resignation.
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STH Loss Pressure just hit 0% for the 5th straight day.
Late March: 22%. Now: zero.
BTC reclaimed $80K, April’s underwater cohort is no longer under pressure, and STH Supply Share dropped to 22.2% - a 90-day low.
Less loss pressure. Less hot supply. Lower forced-selling risk.
Line to watch: $78K-$79K.
Full breakdown ☕️ Adler AM 168👇
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The 10-year Treasury yield is back near 4.43%, a weekly high.
Trump questioned the durability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire after Tehran rejected the latest peace proposal.
For markets, the chain is simple: higher geopolitical risk -> higher risk of expensive oil -> higher inflation risk -> a tougher backdrop for stocks.
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Is retail really back in Bitcoin?
Demand momentum says yes: -8.2% → +4.38% since early April. Transfer volume says not yet: $336M → $351M, still below February levels.
Momentum reversed. Full retail participation has not returned.
☕️ Morning Brief #167 👇
BTC-2.18%
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