AxelAdlerJr

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Yesterday, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index dropped from 50 to 28 in just 24 hours. Sentiment shifted sharply from neutral to fear. Just 3 points away from extreme fear.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index: 28 on Nov 6, 2026 via @AxelAdlerJr

BTC-0.67%

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AxelAdlerJr a day ago

Voted for a donkey, got a bear.

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AxelAdlerJr a day ago

Despite the stock market selloff, BTC exchange netflows remain negative, and coins are being actively bought.
Bitcoin exchange netflow: −4,954 BTC on Nov 5, 2026, 30-day sum −18,122 BTC

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AxelAdlerJr a day ago

Tech stocks suffered their biggest one-day drop since COVID and the VIX surged nearly 70%. Why did the Democrats’ victory rattle AI investors, and how is the selloff putting pressure on Bitcoin?
I break it down in Morning Brief #295 👇

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AxelAdlerJr 2 days ago

Are you a true Bitcoiner?
Why don’t you have this?

AxelAdlerJr 2 days ago

Nearly $290 million in Bitcoin shorts were liquidated in a single day - the most since September 21. Funding has remained positive since May.
Will there be enough fresh buying to sustain the rally after the shorts are closed?
I break it down in Morning Brief #294

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AxelAdlerJr 3 days ago

I like that latest green candle.

AxelAdlerJr 3 days ago

Gold rose 2% and climbed back above $4,000 an ounce. The gains were driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and declining Treasury yields following the Democrats' decisive victories in the midterm elections.
Markets viewed the results as a potential source of increased political gridlock in Washington, limiting the prospects for further fiscal stimulus.

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AxelAdlerJr 3 days ago

Short-term holders’ profit cushion has shrunk to 1%, and their coins are now moving at a loss. How high is the risk of a deeper correction, and what would signal that the pressure is easing?
I break it down in Morning Brief #293👇

AxelAdlerJr 2026-11-03

Bitcoin fell from $79K to $76K over the past week. The futures index has recovered slightly, but the price continues to fall.
What’s behind this divergence and what to watch next - in Morning Brief #292👇

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AxelAdlerJr 2026-11-02

The average number of active Bitcoin addresses has fallen 43% since December 2024, but transfer volume remains around 800,000 BTC per day. How does this compare with 2018, and what does the divergence between these metrics tell us?
I break it down in Morning Brief #291

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AxelAdlerJr 2026-10-30

Any company that stores critical data should have an Application Security department. Every time a new LLM is released, engineers should recheck the code, APIs, and system architecture for vulnerabilities. What’s so hard to understand?
Elon was right: every day can bring a new zero-day. It’s only going to get harder from here.

AxelAdlerJr 2026-10-29

The Fed held rates steady, with two members voting for a hike. Bitcoin reacted calmly. How justified is that calm?
I break down rates, Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s earnings, and Anthropic’s IPO. At the end fresh Weekly Engine data and what it tells us about the BTC market.

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AxelAdlerJr 2026-10-29

Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike as the Fed held rates steady.
The statement upgraded economic growth from a “solid” to a “strong” pace. Inflation still “remains elevated.”

AxelAdlerJr 2026-10-29

Warsh says September’s hike is tightening financial conditions but gives no guidance on the next move.
After the Fed’s Oct. 28 hold:
10Y yield: +5 bps to 5.04%
2Y: little changed at 4.73%
Yield curve steepened.
Markets priced an 86% chance of a December hike.

AxelAdlerJr 2026-10-29

The monthly LTH distribution volume fell 22% over the week. The price remains above long-term holders’ cost basis, but their profit cushion is shrinking.
We examine the shrinking profit cushion and the reasons behind the decline in the distribution metric in Morning Brief #289.

AxelAdlerJr 2026-10-28

The Fear & Greed Index fell to 51 over the past week. The market has stayed in neutral territory for the sixth consecutive day, despite spending almost all of the past two months in greed territory.
How durable is this cooling, and at what index value will the market move into fear territory - in today's Morning Brief. 👇

AxelAdlerJr 2026-10-27

Short-term holders are shifting from taking profits to realizing losses. The 24-hour exchange inflow balance has turned negative.
How large is this imbalance, and what would signal that stress is easing? I break it down in Morning Brief #287.

AxelAdlerJr 2026-10-26

Bitcoin dipped toward $79K last week. Nasdaq fell 2.6% on Oct 22, oil is climbing, Middle East tensions are rising. And per the FT, OpenAI cut its valuation for the new round from $1.4T to $1.25T.
Risk-off mode. What does it mean for Bitcoin and what do the metrics show?

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AxelAdlerJr 2026-10-26

Bitcoin is 6% above the average purchase price of new players. Over the past week, this group's profit cushion narrowed from 8.7% to 5.9%, but their cost basis continues to rise.
Where is the level below which new buyers would be at a loss, and what does the Young/Old Ratio moving average crossover say - in today's Morning Brief.

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AxelAdlerJr

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