AxelAdlerJr

Kevin Warsh at the ECB forum: inflation expectations and risks have eased in recent weeks, but the Fed remains firmly committed to price stability. There will be no public guidance on rates - this is now the Fed's new communication line.

Over the past 24 hours, bulls pushed the market higher aggressively.
But over that same period, open interest contracted by 22,000 BTC.
That is the key divergence. Buyers are pressing, but no new leverage is coming into the market. This is what a bounce driven by position closures looks like.
Why the current move lacks fuel - in Morning Brief #204 👇

LTH are holding a record 16.1M BTC.
LTH MVRV has compressed to 1.24 - the lowest level in 3 years.
Price is weakening, but long-term holders are not selling.
The market is approaching the final phase of the bear cycle.
Morning Brief #202 👇

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a voting FOMC member in 2026, said that signs of broader inflationary pressure led him to project one rate hike by the end of 2026 in his June forecast, instead of the rate cut he had previously expected.
According to Kashkari, the risks are tied not only to the Middle East but also to broader pro-inflationary factors. Further decisions will depend on incoming macro data. Market summaries of his comments also reflected the view that rates could remain unchanged in 2027.

Global equity markets are moving lower as the selloff in tech stocks intensified amid persistent concerns over the massive costs of AI infrastructure.
Sentiment also worsened on reports that OpenAI may delay its initial public offering until 2027.
GLOBAL RISK ON/OFF = -1.44 👇

Realized P/L: -$203.2M.
But price is still holding above the support zone of whales and large wallets: $48K-$56K.
This is a controlled drawdown, not final capitulation.
Latest Morning Brief👇

Oil is falling back toward its pre-Iran conflict levels, while the global risk-on/risk-off gauge has turned negative again.
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With the Fed adopting a more hawkish tone and geopolitical tensions easing after shipping resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, the US dollar continued to strengthen.
The DXY rose in every session after the Fed meeting and reached a 13-month high of 101.5. Markets are now fully pricing in a Fed rate hike by October.

Strategy's Bitcoin treasury just went underwater for the first time since 2022.
Cost basis: ~$75.6K.
BTC: ~$61K.
MSTR: -78% from its peak.
And Strategy just made its first net BTC sale since 2022.
What it means for Bitcoin → Adler AM#199👇

How to Use Decision Terminal: A Short Guide 👇

Price fell to $62K and the average Bitcoin holder is back in loss.
But the pain is targeted: STH capital has shrunk by -56%, while LTH capital has barely drawn down.
Weak hands are capitulating. Strong hands have not even flinched.
Why this is still not a cycle bottom, I break down in the latest Adler AM #197 👇