Is the United States about to pull $1 trillion out of the market? Your Bitcoin could be in trouble

What you see is just sideways consolidation.

What you don’t see is that there’s a pump aimed at the crypto market, ready to drain $1 trillion.

It’s not a bear market, not miners dumping, and not a black swan from exchanges.

It’s the U.S. Treasury.

By the end of June, the TGA (Treasury General Account) balance needs to rise to $900 billion; by the end of July, it needs to reach $1 trillion.

Don’t understand what TGA is? That’s fine—you only need to know this:

When TGA goes up, it’s the U.S. government telling you: Your money—lend it to me first.

Imagine the Treasury as a giant whale. What this whale does to the market is simple:

TGA account balance rises → the whale draws blood from the market (funds flow from your hands into the government account)

TGA account balance falls → the whale bleeds out (funds flow from the government account back into the market)

And historically, the script of major TGA swings has hurt Bitcoin every single time.

For example, in October 2025—when the government shut down.

In just 20 days, the TGA directly drained more than $200 billion from the market—comparable to several rounds of rate hikes. How did Bitcoin react? Back then, the Nasdaq kept setting fresh all-time highs, while Bitcoin was falling. Why? Because the TGA was draining too aggressively.

So this time? Not $200 billion.

It’s $1 trillion.

The turning point is—

The only “buffer,” reverse repurchase agreements (RRP), is gone.

Previously, when the Treasury pulled funds, it first pulled from idle funds in the RRP, without directly touching bank reserves. The RRP peaked at over $2.5 trillion in 2022. But now? Less than $100 billion—many times it’s close to 0.

The buffer is gone.

This means: this time, when the Treasury drains funds, the Treasury’s bond issuance will be deducted directly from bank reserves. And bank reserves are the lifeline of all risk assets in the market—Bitcoin is the most sensitive among risk assets.

Heart-stinging historical data:

Delphi Digital estimated that TGA replenishment withdrawals could cause a potential liquidity shock of about $250 billion to the crypto market. Bitcoin’s correlation with global M2 (broad money supply) is close to 0.94—think about it: when M2 contracts, what happens to BTC?

The last time Bitcoin dropped from $106k to $95k was because $3.67 billion worth of USDT was destroyed. This time is a $250 billion liquidity black hole—you do the math on that multiple.

Golden quote one:

“The U.S. Treasury says, ‘I need to replenish TGA.’ Translated into terms crypto players understand, that means—‘I’m going to take money out of your pocket, and I’m not giving you an IOU.’”

Will the Fed hedge?

Depends on luck.

Some people are hoping the Fed restarts the repurchase agreement tool to hedge. But the hedging buffer of this tool is weaker than the RRP. The new Fed chair, Waller, is known for “hardcore discipline”—expecting him to actively open the taps? Hardly.

If the Treasury’s withdrawal pace can’t match the Fed’s pace of injecting liquidity, the gap in between is the space where Bitcoin’s blood can flow like a river.

Golden quote two:

“TGA withdrawals and Fed liquidity injections are like two people tugging a rope. The rope in the middle is your Bitcoin position. When the rope snaps, the one who gets hurt isn’t them—it’s you.”

So historically, when TGA surged, how much did BTC fall?

During TGA replenishment in 2023: BTC’s maximum drawdown was about 25%.

In the October 2025 instance—20 days of $200 billion drained → BTC fell from $70k to around $60k, and spot ETFs saw 11 consecutive days of net outflows totaling $3.45 billion.

This time it’s $1 trillion—5 times.

Heart-stinging golden quote three:

“You think Bitcoin’s enemies are the SEC, regulation, or miners? None of those. Its number one enemy is a single account balance of the U.S. Treasury.”

Final conclusion:

Many people will tell you, “The Fed will step in,” “macro doesn’t matter,” “HODL through the bull and bear markets.”

But the data won’t lie: M2’s correlation with BTC is 0.94—this is a structural chain. Refusing to admit it only puts your position under the most primitive liquidity shock.

If your leverage is above 3x, de-leverage now.

If your holdings are all altcoins, switch to BTC or USDC.

If you still plan to buy the dip, wait until the TGA target is topped out by the end of July.

Closing golden quote:

“The halving narrative gets you on board, liquidity drainage gets you off. This TGA needle can pop any crypto bull market bubble—because it’s not piercing a single chain, it’s piercing the ‘dollar’ that all chains rely on.”

Stop asking “Why is BTC falling?”

Go check the TGA balance.

The answer is there. #分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 #比特币回升5% $BTC $ETH $SOL