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Last week, the market only traded one word: run.
Five days, from the peak straight down to the trough. Not a correction, not an adjustment, but leverage exploding leverage, stop-loss hitting stop-loss. By Friday afternoon, the sell-offs were not pricing in fundamentals, but pricing in fear itself.
Then nothing happened over the weekend. No defaults, no black swans, no new negative news.
Today, it bounced back at the open. Not a V-shaped reversal, but the market is asking a more fundamental question: Was last week's sharp decline caused by fundamentals, or was it liquidated leverage being forced out?
The difference is huge.
If it's the latter, and this week CPI and FOMC don’t deliver new shocks, the bears will feel the pain. The rebound won’t be slower than the fall.
My judgment today: that low point last week looks like a short-term bottom. It’s not that a bull market has returned, but that selling pressure has temporarily exhausted itself. I don’t dare to easily buy the so-called bottom, but I also don’t dare to chase short here.