6🈷️8 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News:

Macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures: Strong U.S. non-farm employment data triggered a sell-off in risk assets, compounded by tensions in the Middle East (U.S.-Iran related), a high-interest-rate environment, etc., leading to a decline in risk appetite. MicroStrategy (MSTR) publicly sold a small amount of BTC for the first time (32 coins, used for preferred stock dividends)—though largely symbolic—worsened market sentiment.

Regulation/Policy: Discussions on U.S. crypto policies continue (such as Treasury Department hearings), but no major positive catalysts have materialized in the short term. Long-term positives tied to Trump-related reserves/pro-crypto signals have not provided an immediate boost.

Yesterday/Weekend Dynamics: The market rebounded over the weekend, and leverage liquidations eased somewhat, but overall sentiment remains relatively cautious (Fear & Greed index is at low levels). There has been no major new negative news; some predictions believe this is the tail end of the bear market or a low point for a pullback

🤯 Capital:

ETF fund flows: Continued large-scale outflows are the core pressure. In May, there were the largest monthly net outflows in 2026 (about $2.3–2.4 billion), and in early June this continued (multiple days with negative values during the week; total weekly outflows exceeded $4 billion). After a brief and slight inflow on June 4–5 (around +$3 million), it turned negative again. There were fluctuations in products such as BlackRock IBIT, but overall net redemptions remained.

Other: Leverage liquidations are significant (recently in the tens of billions). Whales/long-term holders have partially distributed, but cumulative ETF inflows are still above $50 billion—an all-time historical high. Capital outflows drag on prices in the short term, but the outflows may be nearing an end (historically, this is often accompanied by a bottom)

🤯 Technical:

Last week saw a large pullback. What you need to watch next are the two major timeframes: the monthly and weekly charts. On the monthly chart, gradually watch near the 0 axis to see whether it can form a bottom or break below the 0 axis. On the weekly chart, watch for a bottoming move after this second test.

The daily and 4-hour charts may see a small rebound, but the rebound strength is limited. A second test will likely occur, or price will move away from that bottom. So, in summary, this week will mainly be about range-bound repair and minor rebounds.

Support in the short term still lies at the 60,000 round-number level. On the daily chart, it must not break—if it breaks, the price could head toward around 55,500. If it reaches that level, I will increase my position significantly.