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You don’t need to predict the WC champion
There are much easier ways to get a clean 2–4x:
1. Pick one of the lower teams with a 1–2% chance
2. Sell if they reach R32/R16
If they:
- get 2nd place in their group: 1.5–2x
- win the group: 2–3x
- reach the quarterfinal: 3–4x
Switzerland probably has the easiest group (Canada, Qatar, and Bosnia). Anything less than a 2nd-place group finish would be a huge surprise
Even with 2nd place, they’ll likely face Mexico/Chechia/Korea which are weaker on the paper
So there’s a high chance of at least a 2–4x here (nfa)