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#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 U.S. Stocks Weekly Preview (June 9–13)
1. This Week’s Market Close Background
This weekend, the Nasdaq plunged over 4% in a single day, and the Semiconductor Index (SOX) tumbled more than 10%, marking the largest single-day drop since April last year. Just two days prior, the index had hit a record high. The trigger was a panic over interest rate hikes caused by consecutive strong employment data—non-farm payrolls increased by 172k in May, nearly double the market expectation of 85k, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, and the 10-year Treasury yield jumping to 4.54% that day. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged 34% in a single day, closing above 20. Market sentiment has clearly reversed, and next week faces multiple tests.
2. Key Data Calendar
Wednesday (June 11) — May CPI (Major)
The May CPI data will reveal how rising oil and gas prices are transmitted to overall inflation. The market is closely watching whether energy prices have spread to other CPI components. This is the most important data of the week, just one week before the Federal Reserve’s June 17 policy meeting. Its reading will have an unusually direct impact on the Fed’s dot plot, prompting traders to update their expectations for rate hikes or cuts this year. The previous CPI (April) already pressured the market—April’s YoY CPI rose 3.8%, the highest since May 2023, with core CPI up 2.8% YoY. If May’s data again exceeds expectations, expectations for rate hikes will intensify further.
Thursday (June 12) — May PPI
April PPI surged 1.4% MoM and soared to 6.0% YoY. PPI is released one day after CPI; if both are high simultaneously, it will add pressure; if there is divergence, it provides interpretive space for the market.
3. The Largest IPO in History—SpaceX Debuts (Stock Code: SPCX)
Expected to price on Thursday night, June 11, at $135 per share, issuing 555.6 million shares, with plans to list on Nasdaq on June 12. The IPO aims to raise about $75 billion, with an estimated valuation of $1.75 trillion or more. If completed, it will be the largest IPO in history. This event has a dual impact: on one hand, it attracts significant attention and boosts sentiment; on the other, investors may sell holdings that have recently risen sharply to subscribe to SpaceX, creating short-term selling pressure.
4. Key Earnings Reports
The earnings season is mostly over this week, but some major tech companies remain noteworthy, including Oracle (ORCL), which will announce results next week. Adobe will also release its quarterly report. Both benefit from AI infrastructure growth, and the market will watch whether their outlooks on AI demand can boost sentiment, which has been dampened by semiconductor sell-offs.
5. Apple WWDC Developer Conference
Apple’s (AAPL) annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) will kick off next week, focusing on AI feature updates and new product previews. Under the overall pressure on the tech sector, whether WWDC can bring a sentiment boost is another key focus.
6. Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook
After soaring energy prices, the futures market is digesting a higher likelihood of the Fed raising rates this year rather than cutting, which is a clear reversal from early-year expectations of rate cuts. Changes in Fed policy expectations are a core driver of this round of sell-offs. Additionally, the S&P 500 has rebounded over 20% from the late March lows without a healthy correction, adding technical pressure to the market.
7. Overall Analysis
Historically, a 5%–10% correction during a bull market is normal consolidation, and we may be in such a phase now. However, June’s seasonal outlook is not very optimistic. The market’s leadership is concentrated in AI and energy sectors, with narrow breadth; combined with high valuations, narrowing risk premiums on stocks and bonds, and rising bond yields, the market’s vulnerability to negative surprises is increasing.
Core logic: Next week’s CPI is the biggest variable—if data exceeds expectations, the rate hike outlook will intensify, further suppressing overvalued tech stocks; if below expectations, sentiment can quickly recover. The SpaceX IPO remains the key focus and liquidity window for the week. $AAPL
1. This Week’s Market Close Background
This weekend, the Nasdaq plunged over 4% in a single day, and the Semiconductor Index (SOX) tumbled more than 10%, marking the largest single-day decline since April last year. Just two days prior, the index had hit a record high. The trigger was a panic over interest rate hikes fueled by consecutive strong employment data—non-farm payrolls increased by 172k in May, nearly double the market expectation of 85k, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, and the 10-year Treasury yield jumping to 4.54% that day. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged 34% in a single day, closing above 20. Market sentiment has clearly reversed, and next week faces multiple tests.
2. Key Data Calendar
Wednesday (June 11) — May CPI (Major)
The May CPI data will reveal how rising oil and gas prices are transmitted to overall inflation. The market is closely watching whether energy prices have spread to other CPI components. This is the most significant data of the week, just one week before the Federal Reserve’s June 17 policy meeting. Its reading will have an unusually direct impact on the Fed’s dot plot, prompting traders to update their expectations for rate cuts or hikes this year. The previous CPI (April) already pressured the market—April’s YoY CPI rose 3.8%, the highest since May 2023, with core CPI up 2.8% YoY. If May data again exceeds expectations, expectations for rate hikes will intensify further.
Thursday (June 12) — May PPI
April PPI surged 1.4% MoM and soared to 6.0% YoY. PPI is released one day after CPI; if both are high simultaneously, it will add pressure; if there is divergence, it will provide interpretive space for the market.
3. The Largest IPO in History—SpaceX Debuts (Stock Code: SPCX)
Expected to price on Thursday night, June 11, at $135 per share for 555.6 million shares, with plans to list on Nasdaq on June 12. The IPO aims to raise about $75 billion, with a valuation estimated at $1.75 trillion or more. If completed, it will be the largest IPO in history. This event has a dual impact: on one hand, it attracts enormous attention and boosts sentiment; on the other, investors may sell recent winners to subscribe for SpaceX, creating short-term selling pressure.
4. Key Earnings Reports
The earnings season is mostly over this week, but some major tech companies remain noteworthy, including Oracle (ORCL), which will report next week. Adobe will also release its quarterly results. Both benefit from AI infrastructure, and the market will focus on whether their outlooks for AI demand can lift sentiment, which has been dampened by semiconductor sell-offs.
5. Apple WWDC Developer Conference
Apple’s (AAPL) annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) will kick off next week, focusing on AI feature updates and new product previews. Under the overall pressure on the tech sector, whether WWDC can bring a sentiment boost is another key point of attention.
6. Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook
After the surge in energy prices, futures markets are digesting a higher likelihood of the Fed raising rates this year rather than cutting, which is a stark reversal from early-year expectations of rate cuts. Changes in Fed policy expectations are a core driver of this round of sell-off. Additionally, the S&P 500 has rebounded over 20% from its late March lows without a healthy correction, adding technical pressure to the market.
7. Overall Analysis
Historically, a 5%–10% correction during a bull market is normal consolidation, and we may currently be in such a phase. However, June’s seasonal outlook is not very optimistic. The market’s leadership is concentrated in AI and energy sectors, with narrow breadth; combined with high valuations, narrowing risk premiums for stocks and bonds, and rising bond yields, the market’s vulnerability to negative surprises is increasing.
Core logic: CPI next week is the biggest variable—if data exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will rise, further suppressing overvalued tech stocks; if below expectations, sentiment can quickly recover. The SpaceX IPO remains the focal point of weekly sentiment and liquidity observation. $AAPL