#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 After a 10.3% plunge, the strongest rebound in the U.S. stock market is not all AI, but the "AI network + optical interconnect + HBM" these three core lines.

This recent stock market crash appears on the surface to be a bubble burst in AI, but in reality, it resembles a "valuation kill due to high crowded trades."
On June 5th, the Nasdaq dropped 4.2% in a single day, the largest single-day decline since April 2025; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 10.3%, marking its worst day since March 2020.
At the individual stock level, Marvell fell 16.7%, Micron dropped 13.3%, Intel declined 11.3%, AMD fell 10.9%, Broadcom dropped 7.9%, Nvidia declined 6.2%.
The main trigger was stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, reigniting fears of Fed rate hikes, and market disappointment over overly high expectations for AI chip performance following Broadcom’s earnings.
But this isn’t a collapse in AI demand. The real signal is: funds are not denying AI, but are re-evaluating who in the AI supply chain is truly in need, has real orders, and genuine cash flow.
Therefore, after the plunge, the strongest rebound will not be all AI stocks bouncing back together, but three categories:
First, AI networks and custom ASICs.
Second, CPO/Si photonics/light sources.
Third, HBM and high-end storage.
And the most severely misjudged stocks, I believe, are not Marvell, which fell the most, but Broadcom.
Marvell is the most resilient, Broadcom is the most obviously misjudged, Micron has the largest expectation gap, and Coherent/Lumentum are industry shortfalls with the hardest constraints.

**1. First, define the situation: this is not a fundamental collapse in AI, but a simultaneous sell-off driven by "interest rates + crowded trades + overly optimistic expectations."**
There are three core reasons for this crash.
First, strong U.S. employment data reignites rate hike expectations.
Strong employment means inflation pressures and rate hike expectations are rising again, leading to natural valuation corrections for high-valuation tech stocks. Barron’s also mentioned that robust employment reports trigger concerns about rising interest rates, with capital-intensive, long-duration sectors like semiconductors and solar energy being hit hardest.
Second, AI semiconductor trading is too crowded.
Even after the crash, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has still gained over 70% this year, indicating extremely high prior capital crowding. Once high-flying sectors face rate and earnings expectation disturbances, a concentrated sell-off occurs.
Third, Broadcom triggered an "overly high AI expectation" sentiment kill.
In Q2, Broadcom’s AI semiconductor revenue was $10.8 billion, up 143% year-over-year; for Q3, it’s expected to reach $16 billion, up over 200%. Yet, because market expectations were even higher, the stock was hammered.
This is the key point: the company’s fundamentals haven’t worsened; the market just feels it’s "not enough to beat expectations." After such a plunge, the strongest rebound often doesn’t come from the stocks that fell the most or are the cheapest, but from those with:
- solid fundamentals,
- industry trends intact,
- and where the decline was merely a valuation and sentiment overreaction.

**2. The first strongest rebound direction: AI networks and custom ASICs**
This is the primary line to watch after the crash.
Because the next phase of AI data center challenges is no longer just "who has GPUs," but:
- how GPUs are interconnected,
- how cloud providers develop self-designed ASICs,
- how to reduce AI cluster costs.
This is the core value of Broadcom and Marvell.
Broadcom was hammered because the market thought its AI chip revenue guidance was "not aggressive enough."
But its actual performance isn’t weak: in Q2, AI semiconductor revenue was $10.8 billion, up 143%; for Q3, it’s projected to reach $16 billion, up over 200%.
Additionally, the total revenue guidance for Q3 is about $29.4 billion, up 84%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 68%.
What does this mean?
Broadcom isn’t experiencing an AI downturn; the market just overestimated expectations.
If U.S. tech stocks rebound later, Broadcom is likely to be one of the first core stocks to recover.
It’s not the most elastic, but it has the strongest fundamentals.
Marvell follows a different logic: it’s more like a high-beta play on AI networks and custom ASICs.
During the Taipei Computex, Jensen Huang said Marvell could become the "next trillion-dollar company," and it surged to a new high on that day; it will also be included in the S&P 500 on June 22, which will bring passive capital flows.
So, this line can be viewed as:
- Broadcom: the most obvious misjudgment.
- Marvell: the most elastic rebound potential.
But they differ significantly:
Broadcom fell 7.9%, not the most, but it looks like a "mistaken kill."
Marvell fell 16.7%, potentially the most explosive rebound, but it also had a huge run earlier this year, with exaggerated gains, so it’s more of a high-elasticity trade, not the lowest risk misjudgment.

**3. The second strongest rebound direction: CPO, silicon photonics, and light sources**
Post-crash, the second key area to watch is CPO and optical interconnects.
The reason is simple: AI data centers continue to expand, and one of the toughest physical bottlenecks is bandwidth and power consumption.
LightCounting estimates that the Ethernet optical modules and CPO market used in AI clusters will reach $16.5 billion in 2025 and $26 billion in 2026, with about 60% annual growth over two years.
It also notes that in 2026, AI cluster expansion will be limited by XPU and switch ASIC shortages, but optical transceiver sales are still expected to grow about 60%.
This indicates one thing:
AI optical interconnects are not ending in prosperity, but supply can’t keep up with demand.
More critically, Nvidia has already committed significant investments upstream in photonic supply chains.
In March, Nvidia announced plans to invest $2 billion each in Lumentum and Coherent, totaling $4 billion, along with major procurement commitments to enhance photonic technology and optical manufacturing for AI data center chips.
This is a very strong signal.
If it were just a normal market, Nvidia wouldn’t spend $4 billion upfront to lock in laser, optical, and photonic capacity.
This move essentially tells the market: the next gap in AI data centers isn’t just in GPUs, but also in light sources, silicon photonics, CPO, and optical interconnects.
That’s why stocks like Coherent and Lumentum, if they are also hammered in this crash, will have strong rebound potential later.
But note: these stocks have already risen significantly, with high valuations, so they are not "misjudged at low levels," but represent "industry trend with high elasticity and volatility."
The approximate relationships are:
- Lumentum: lasers, light sources, optical communication devices.
- Coherent: photonic materials, lasers, optical devices, optical communication.
- Marvell: AI network, DSP, switch/interconnect, optoelectronic integration expectations.
- Broadcom: ASIC + AI network platform.
The rebound logic here is clear: AI isn’t retreating; it’s expanding from GPUs to networks and optical interconnects.
This aligns with previous research narratives: AI demand isn’t just in GPUs and optical modules, but will continue to sink into upstream bottlenecks like O-DSP, CPO, materials, chemicals, electronic fabrics, and silicon tetrachloride.

**4. The third strongest rebound direction: HBM and high-end storage**
The third line is HBM and high-end storage.
Micron fell 13.3%, mainly because the market worries that after SK Hynix and Samsung’s large capacity expansions, storage might become oversupplied.
But I believe this concern is exaggerated in the short term.
During the Taipei Computex, SK Group’s chairman said SK Hynix plans to double wafer capacity over the next five years to meet AI-driven storage demand; he also warned that memory supply bottlenecks could persist until around 2030.
Reuters also mentioned that in Q1 2026, SK Hynix holds about 58% of the global HBM market, with Samsung and Micron each around 21%.
This is very critical.
If storage were truly about to oversupply, SK Hynix wouldn’t publicly say bottlenecks might last until 2030.
Their expansion indicates they see a long-term gap, not a short-term boom.
More importantly, AI storage isn’t a normal DRAM cycle but an HBM cycle.
Normal DRAM expansion causes price pressure;
but HBM is constrained by advanced packaging, TSV, yield, customer qualification, and GPU binding, making capacity release much slower than regular storage.
So, Micron’s large decline isn’t without logic.
Its risk lies in traditional storage cycle volatility, but the opportunity is in increasing HBM market share.
Micron’s rebound logic: if the market re-recognizes that HBM remains tight rather than oversupplied, Micron will see a significant recovery.
But it’s not my top "most misjudged" stock because storage’s inherent cycle properties are stronger and more volatile.

**5. The most severely misjudged stock: Broadcom**
If I had to pick just one "most misjudged," it’s Broadcom.
Not because it fell the most, but because the market’s reasoning for its decline is the least sufficient.
The market hammered Broadcom because its AI chip guidance didn’t significantly beat expectations.
But the company’s actual AI business data is very solid: in Q2, AI semiconductor revenue was $10.8 billion, up 143%; for Q3, it’s expected to reach $16 billion, up over 200%.
It also provided guidance for Q3 total revenue at about $29.4 billion, up 84% year-over-year.
This isn’t a company with deteriorating fundamentals.
It’s more like: the market expected a perfect score, but it delivered 95 points, and funds treated that as failing.
Broadcom’s core advantages are threefold:
First, it positions itself in AI custom ASICs for Google, Meta, and other cloud providers’ self-developed AI chips, which fundamentally require Broadcom’s ASIC and networking chip capabilities.
Second, it’s positioned in AI networking—larger AI clusters mean more importance on networking. Switches, interconnects, SerDes, and network chips will become core value pools.
Third, it has extremely strong cash flow—Q2 operating cash flow was $10.49B, with free cash flow after capex at $10.26B, accounting for 46% of revenue.
This quality of cash flow is very rare among high-valuation AI stocks.
So, it’s not a story stock; it’s one of the AI infrastructure companies with the highest cash flow quality.
My judgment: after this crash, Broadcom is very likely the most promising core misjudged stock for recovery in U.S. AI hardware.

**6. The most elastic stock: Marvell**
If Broadcom’s misjudgment is the most obvious, then Marvell’s is the most elastic.
Marvell’s decline was even larger, with a 16.7% single-day drop.
But its industry logic is even more exciting: AI network, custom ASIC, optical interconnect, DSP, inclusion in the S&P 500, Nvidia ecosystem support—these labels all stack together.
During the Taipei Computex, Jensen Huang directly said Marvell could become the "next trillion-dollar company," which pushed its stock to a historic high.
So, Marvell’s future path could be more extreme:
- If AI hardware rebounds, it might bounce even more sharply than Broadcom;
- If AI continues to kill valuations, it could also be the most volatile.
It’s not a conservative misjudgment but a high-elasticity rebound play.
In one sentence: Broadcom is suitable for a recovery logic, Marvell for an elasticity rebound.

**7. The stock with the largest expectation gap: Micron**
Micron’s recent decline mainly stems from the market’s misunderstanding that SK Hynix’s expansion would lead to future supply pressure.
But this understanding is only half correct.
Expansion does impact long-term supply, but if the industry leader judges the gap until 2030, then expansion actually confirms:
- HBM demand isn’t a short cycle but a long cycle.
SK Hynix plans to double wafer capacity in five years, not because storage will be immediately oversupplied, but because AI storage demand will be so large that it requires a five-year horizon.
So, Micron’s misjudgment is that the market uses normal DRAM cycle thinking to judge HBM companies, which is wrong.
But Micron also faces risks: it doesn’t have the stable cash flow and business structure of Broadcom; if storage prices fluctuate, its valuation will be very sensitive.
Therefore, Micron is better defined as a "expectation gap" stock, not the most stable misjudged stock.

**8. The most structurally weak stock: Coherent and Lumentum**
The logic for Coherent and Lumentum is very clear:
- AI expansion continues,
- CPO needs to be implemented,
- light sources and photonic devices are indispensable.
Nvidia’s $4 billion investment in these two companies, along with procurement commitments, is very rare industry binding.
This indicates they are not ordinary optical communication cycle stocks but key links in moving AI data centers from electrical to optical interconnects.
But these stocks also have a problem:
- they already rose significantly earlier,
- valuation elasticity and retracement are large.
So, if they rebound later, it could be very sharp; but if U.S. stocks continue to kill high valuations, they will also fluctuate violently.
I categorize them as:
- industry shortfalls with the hardest constraints, but
- the highest trading difficulty.

**9. Which stocks are not misjudged?**
In this decline, some stocks seem to fall a lot but shouldn’t be simply called misjudged.
Intel fell 11.3%, but it’s not the core beneficiary of this round of AI hardware.
Its issues are more about advanced process, foundry, product competitiveness, and financial recovery, not just being misjudged in the AI chain.
AMD fell 10.9%, with some misjudgment, but not the strongest.
It benefits from AI GPU, CPU, and server cycles, but still faces competition from Nvidia; its certainty isn’t as high as Broadcom’s ASIC + network platform or Marvell’s AI network elasticity.
Nvidia fell 6.2%, not misjudged, just normal valuation fluctuation.
Nvidia remains a core AI stock, but it’s too large and transparent; future rebounds may be steady but not the most elastic.

**10. Final conclusion: the strongest rebound depends on these three lines, and the most severely misjudged is Broadcom**
After this U.S. stock market crash, my clear judgment is:
- The strongest rebound directions: AI networks and custom ASICs.
- Core stocks: Broadcom, Marvell.
- Broadcom for recovery, Marvell for elasticity.
- The most critical industry shortfall: CPO, silicon photonics, light sources.
- Core stocks: Coherent, Lumentum, Marvell.
- Nvidia’s $4 billion lock-in of photonic supply chain shows optical interconnects are the next major bottleneck.
- The largest expectation gap: HBM and high-end storage.
- Core stock: Micron.
- Market worries about expansion, but SK Hynix says bottlenecks may last until 2030, indicating high-end storage isn’t a short-cycle story.
If I had to pick just one "most misjudged" stock: Broadcom.
If I had to pick just one with the greatest rebound elasticity: Marvell.
If I had to pick just one with the biggest expectation gap: Micron.
If I had to pick just one representing the hardest industry shortfall: Coherent/Lumentum.