$64 SOL, do you dare to take a flying knife?

Forward Industries just transferred 450k SOL into the exchange, Pump fun treasury continues to sell, weekly down 22% hitting a three-year low——but SOL rebounded from 61.9 to 64.2, with over 3.4 million active addresses daily.

First look at the surface: bad news piling up, price falling like a dog.

In the past week, the crypto market evaporated 400 billion dollars, SOL dropped 22% weekly, 27% monthly, halving from its all-time high of 293 dollars—only a fraction left. Market cap is 37.5 billion, ranked 7th, but sentiment is more panicked than during the FTX collapse.

All daily moving averages are dead-crossed, price repeatedly hits new lows in a downtrend channel, RSI on monthly level is oversold, extremely panicked, but can’t fall further?

First thing: institutions are dumping, but you might be scared off by the last blow.

Forward Industries transferred 450k SOL (about $31.87 million) into Coinbase Prime, market directly interprets as “preparing to sell.”

Forward is the largest corporate holder; their sale doesn’t mean all institutions are selling. Likewise, Pump fun treasury’s selling isn’t the first time.

Second thing: ecosystem data hit new all-time highs, but price didn’t keep up.

Over 3.4 million active addresses daily, peak reached 4.16 million, DeFi TVL stable at $8-13.5 billion, stablecoin supply hit a record $16.4 billion, RWA total value $2.8 billion also ATH. Meta expanded Solana stablecoin payments, creators directly receive USDC.

Third thing: a technical signal that must be taken seriously appeared.

Monthly RSI below the level during the FTX collapse, for the first time in four years. Daily RSI is extremely oversold, Stochastic also at low levels. $60-62 is a support zone at a three-year low, today rebounded from 61.9 to 64.2, forming the first bullish candle.

Bull-bear confrontation, see for yourself.

One side:

- Monthly RSI lower than during FTX collapse, historically extreme oversold

- Ecosystem data (daily active addresses, TVL, stablecoins) all at new highs

- Meta expanding payments, traditional giants entering

- $60-62 support zone, rebounded today

Other side:

- Forward Industries dumping + treasury continuous sell-off

- All daily moving averages dead-crossed, complete bear channel

- Overall market risk aversion, ETF net outflows

- If BTC drops below 60k, SOL might follow down to 55-50

Key level: 64, only 2 dollars away from the critical 61.9 line.

Resistance above: 66 → 70 → 75-80 (channel upper bound)

Support below: 61.9 (today’s low) → 60 (psychological level) → 55-50

Short-term traders:

Light long at 63-64, stop-loss at 61.5, target 66-68, if it can’t break 66, just exit. If it effectively breaks below 61.5, go short decisively at 58-55.

Swing traders:

Buy the dips at 60-62 in 2-3 batches (no more than 20% of position each time), stop-loss at 58, wait for rebound to 70-75 to cut half. Only a volume breakout above 75-80 signals a real reversal.

Long-term believers:

DCA below 60. SOL’s fundamentals haven’t changed, only market sentiment pushed the price into a golden pit. Target 100-140 in late 2026, betting on macro warming + ecosystem landing continuously. But it’s still in a bear channel now, save some funds for averaging down, don’t go all-in.

SOL is currently the “most fundamentally strong, worst-priced” example——

99% think “SOL will go to zero,” yet the ecosystem has 3.4 million daily active users, Meta is still increasing their stake. #分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 #预测NBA总冠军赢20,000U $BTC $ETH $SOL