BTC at $62,399, are you going to buy the dip?

RSI dropped to 16, the fifth time in history this has happened, the previous four times all brought a 20%+ rebound— but a strong non-farm payroll report caused a crash, ETF continuous net outflows, this weekend’s bullish candle is whether a “dead cat bounce” or a “golden pit”? The whole network is crying out “bull market is over,” but I smell a familiar scent.
First look at the surface: weekly down 15%, panic index at freezing point.
Last week, from 71k all the way down to 59k, the lowest touched 59,100, total crypto market cap evaporated 390 billion. The entire network is cursing, KOLs shouting “bear market confirmed.”
And then? Bounced back from 59k to 62.4k, +2.53%.
RSI daily dropped to 16, a number only seen during the 2022 FTX collapse, 2020’s 312, and late 2018 bottoms. Extremely oversold, a rebound is imminent.
First thing: strong non-farm payroll report caused a crash, but the market has already priced in most of it.
Last week’s non-farm payroll was 172k, far exceeding expectations, with the rate hike probability soaring to 70%, the dollar strengthening, risk assets collectively crashing. BTC fell 15% in a week, sounds scary?
This weekend’s bullish candle is a signal: selling pressure exhausted, some are starting to buy the dip.
Retail investors are still panicking about “rate hikes until the end of the year,” smart money has quietly accumulated below 60k.
Second thing: ETF continues to flow out, but cumulative inflows still exceed 54 billion.
Net outflows of 325 million on Thursday and Friday, several days in a row. The community is freaking out: “Institutions are fleeing!”
Institutions offloading at high levels, buying at low levels, this is asset allocation. Chasing high and getting trapped, cutting losses at low levels—that’s retail.
ETF fund flows are lagging indicators, not leading indicators. When the media tells you “ETF returns to net inflow,” BTC is already above 65k.
Third thing: a technical signal that must be taken seriously.
RSI dropped to 16. Past 5 years, BTC daily RSI has only fallen below 20 four times:
- 2020 312: then rose 200% over the next 3 months
- 2022 FTX collapse: then rose 100% over the next 6 months
- August 2024: then rose 30% over the next 2 months
- September 2025: then rose 25% over the next month
The fifth time is now.
Bull vs. bear, see for yourself**
One side:
- RSI=16, historically extreme oversold, 90% chance of rebound
- 60k-62k is a strong support for 4 months, buy orders appeared over the weekend
- Cumulative ETF inflows still over 54 billion, institutions have not left
- “More BTC is in loss” is a cycle bottom signal
The other side:
- Strong non-farm + 70% rate hike expectation, macro extremely hawkish
- ETF continuous net outflows, short-term selling pressure remains
- If it breaks below 59k, the channel’s lower bound opens, target 55k-50k
- Weekly chart still in a downtrend, rebound may just be a “dead cat bounce”
Key level: 62.4k, only 2,400 away from the critical 60k line.
Resistance above: 65k → 67,000 → 70,000-75k
Support below: 60k → 58,000 → 55k-54k → 46,000-50k
Short-term traders:
Light long positions at 62k-62,500, stop-loss at 60,800, target 65,000-67,000. RSI=16 + hammer candle, high rebound probability.
Swing traders:
Wait for Monday’s US stock market to confirm: hold above 60k and volume up to break above 64k, add positions to chase for 75k+; if it drops below 59,500, go short decisively, target 55k-54k, stop-loss at 61,500.
Long-term believers:
DCA below 60k. Remember: every time RSI<20 is a golden pit, end-of-2026 target 80k-100k, betting on the restart of the rate cut cycle.
This bullish candle is a “breather,” not a “turnaround.”
60k is the life-and-death line, holding it is the bottom after 312; if it can’t hold, wait for 55k #分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 or even 50k to buy the dip.