💭 Market thoughts

While crypto clearly entered a bear trend with no clear bottom signal so far, the Stock Market looks very different:
Friday was one of the most brutal intraday sell-offs in a long while and yanked a lot of people out of their euphoric dream state of 'up only'. While I believe that a Relief-Bounce is technically warranted in the short term, the mid-term perspective is far more tricky & boils basically down to one question:
➡️ Who will win?
A) Orange man telling everyone that the market will go up and that any seller is a pussy
B) Macro factors and technicals
Personally I expect shortterm A still wins over B...
...Markets are highly reflexive, especially right now, so one shouldn't brush off the impact a single bull tweet from Trump can (still) have. And in this case it's not just one tweet... it's an armada from Trump, the White House and news outlets about Iran deals, government buying shares in AI companies, etc. Chances are pretty good this once again has the power to kick the can a little further down the road.
But it has become a close call for sure with liquidity drying up + getting sucked out of the broad market (TGA/RRP situation + IPOs + rising rates) & US30Y’s sitting at 5.0%. So I think it's only healthy to be a little more defensive when a previously mapped out bear scenario starts exactly as predicted months ago.
We're in a phase of Vola-Crescendo (high volatility across markets).
It's a structural / cyclic thing & historically happens at the end of Easy-Money Phases (Rates stay flat or getting hiked / Inflation gets sticky / Real Yield above 2.2%) before capitulation. This produces a specific dynamic:
Capital concentrates on a narrow set of highly speculative themes (e.g. Semis / "AI Bottleneck Microcaps" etc.) while abandoning the long-tail - both moving with extreme volatility, but in opposite directions. The most dangerous thing to do in these phases is historically to get greedy with relief bounces instead of using them to clean up the folio from hype-driven vaporware & keeping only what you'd buy back at a 50% drawdown (that is basically your long-term conviction filter).
Play whatever the market shows you and forget your bias, ego and whatever you think to know better.