6.7 Market Analysis

Trend: Reversal day, leaning towards bearish

Data Perspective:

Data releases next week:

Wednesday night at 8:30 PM — US May CPI;

Thursday night at 8:30 PM — US May PPI

On-Chain Data:

Hyperliquid: Pension account opened its first long Ether position with a size of 50k, and after a brief T+0 trading, the position returned to 50k, with an average price of 1845.6;

Coinglass: Changes rapidly, check independently.

Technical Analysis:

BTC:

After nearly a week of sharp decline and bloodbath, BTC has returned to the lower boundary of the daily consolidation range, showing initial signs of stabilization. The funding rate has also turned from positive to negative for the first time. Will the rebound start as expected?

We must view the current market rationally — traders are hesitant to go short, and longs are either hesitant to buy the dip or have been deeply trapped. From price action (PA), BTC must focus on whether the key level of 64,753 can be effectively broken through. If it can be broken and held, a rebound can be considered. Below that, there is strong resistance at 63,067-63,683. Additionally, the slopes of the 4H, 12H, and daily moving averages are very steep, so even if a rebound occurs, it will likely reach the resistance zone before pulling back for consolidation, which could lead to a decent rebound.

Conversely, if it encounters resistance and pulls back, creating a new low, attention should be paid to support around 55,587-58,186. If it continues to fall through, it may reach the large support zone of 48,941-53,359 (a major bottom-fishing area, but not necessarily hit).

ETH:

Similar logic to BTC applies. The key is to confirm the trend through price action. The main resistance above is at 1646-1671. The critical level to watch is whether 1718 can be effectively broken and held, which would signal a potential rebound.

Personally, I have placed short orders at 1646, 1668, and 1684. Currently, the order at 1646 has been filled, verifiable in the live account. This approach involves some left-side gambling, as I believe there might be a new low. However, from a PA perspective, if the daily close is not able to create a new low and the price pushes into the 1471-1496 zone, I will close these positions.

Overall:

After such a long sideways consolidation, the chance of a significant rebound immediately after a new low is low. More likely, the market will probe further downward. When trading, we need to consider all possibilities in our plan. That’s why we focus on left-side trading combined with attention to price action — the market’s trend won’t change because of any trader. Our role is to analyze potential price behaviors in advance and prepare accordingly.

Meanwhile, from a time perspective, the SpaceX bloodsucking effect has already been digested, and the June 18 rate decision is approaching. Even if the bearish trend extends, I won’t pursue long-term shorts; I plan to stop shorting before next Wednesday and switch to a wait-and-see stance. If the price reaches a good level, I might consider spot buying ETH.

Finally, here are some support and resistance zones for reference. Do not trade emotionally. Wishing everyone to profit against the trend!

Support and Resistance Zones:

BTC

Support: 59,612-61,453, 55,587-58,186, 48,941-53,359 (large range)

Resistance: 63,067-63,683, near 64,753, 65,178-66,406, 67,426-68,706

ETH

Support: 1,471-1,496, 1,408-1,453, 1,167-1,341 (large range)

Resistance: 1,646-1,671, 1,688-1,718, 1,750-1,772, 1,819-1,872