Saylor's 12.2 Billion Unrealized Loss Bomb: If Bitcoin drops below this number, he has to sell coins while kneeling!

Are you still foolishly believing in the phrase "Never sell"?

Micheal Saylor, the man in a suit who got addicted to buying Bitcoin, now holds 843,706 BTC.

Unrealized loss: $12.27 billion.

You read that right. Not 120 million, but 12.2 billion.

But he's still shouting: "Never sell. Never."

The question is—he doesn't want to sell, but do his creditors agree?

Strategy: Over the years, borrowing money to buy coins, issuing preferred stocks, convertible bonds, pushing leverage to the ceiling. Interest must be paid, dividends must be paid.

Now that Bitcoin has fallen so much, those creditors are not to be underestimated.

If the price continues to fall, reaching a certain critical point—banks will require margin calls, preferred stockholders will demand early redemption, or even trigger forced liquidation clauses.

By then, it’s not about whether Saylor wants to sell, but that he has to sell.

So what is that critical price?

I did some rough calculations (no nonsense, just the conclusion):

Strategy’s total debt + preferred stock obligations are roughly in the $4-5 billion range. Its collateral is those 847,706 BTC.

If Bitcoin drops to around $35,000, the collateral value will approach 1.2 times the total debt, the safety line. Many lending protocols and banks’ margin call triggers are at this level.

Once it falls below $30k, large-scale forced liquidation is not “possible,” but “inevitable.”

Do you think Saylor can withstand it? He can’t withstand legal contracts.

“Saylor’s ‘Never sell’ is like a gambler saying ‘One last game’—by the time he says it, the hands are no longer his to control.”

Not just Strategy. BitMine holds 5.41 million ETH, unrealized loss of 10.35 billion.

Together, these two are a $22 billion unrealized loss bomb.

DWF co-founder Grachev said: If both trigger liquidation simultaneously, it would be the biggest crash in crypto history, and BTC could drop to 10,000–20k.

That would be a true bloodbath.

But—there’s a turning point.

Have you noticed?

Bitcoin RSI is currently 15.5.

What does this mean? The lowest since the March 2020 “312” crash.

Historically, every time RSI drops to this extreme oversold level, it’s followed by a violent rebound of 30%–50%.

Technical target price around 70,650.

5.3 million long-term holders are now unrealized losses, more panicked than Saylor, but they have even more “hold till death” faith.

So what is the current situation?

Two completely opposite forces are tearing apart:

On the left is the black hole of corporate treasury liquidation, capable of dragging Bitcoin back to 10,000–20,000.

On the right is the technical oversold spring, the more it’s squeezed, the higher it bounces, targeting 70k.

“Current Bitcoin is caught between Saylor’s noose and retail investors’ blood bag.”

My judgment:

In the short term, the probability of a rebound from oversold conditions is higher. Because corporate liquidations require a sustained price decline to trigger, and RSI 15.5 is usually a sign of an imminent rebound.

But after bouncing to 50k or 60k, if the macroeconomy continues to worsen, that noose will tighten gradually.

The real danger zone:

Below 35,000, Saylor begins to receive margin call notices.

Below 30,000, he is forced to sell coins.

Below 20,000, the entire crypto market enters “corporate liquidation mode.”

“Bull markets rely on faith, bear markets rely on accounting. Saylor’s faith is worth 12.2 billion, but his contracts #分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 are only worth 30k.”