Recently, I’ve noticed everyone plotting stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and OTC funds on the same chart, then jumping to conclusions. Put simply, it’s a bit of a case of treating correlation as causation. More stablecoins could just mean there are more “parking spots” on-chain; ETF inflows could also be assets being moved through another pipeline, and they don’t necessarily map one-to-one to the on-chain tokens you and I hold.

Thinking about it later, it’s actually pretty laughable—I almost got swept up by this kind of “linear narrative” a couple of days ago. And it’s still popular to compare RWA, US Treasury yields, and on-chain yield products together, which feels like measuring different materials with the same ruler.

Anyway, I’d rather slow down: find out where the money comes from, where it’s going, and whether along the way it gets stuck by governance or incentive structures. If the loop doesn’t hold, there’s no need to get excited first.