Analyst: Macro pressures pushed Bitcoin below $79,000, but outflows from the fixed income market may constitute a medium-term positive signal

ME News message: On May 17 (UTC+8), crypto analyst Marcel Pechman said that after Bitcoin was rejected at $82,000 on Friday, it rapidly fell back, dropping below $79,000. The price action closely tracks the US small-cap stocks index, indicating that macro factors are the primary driver of this round of decline. The Russell 2000 index, which covers small- and mid-sized enterprises with higher capital costs, is more sensitive to interest-rate trends. The high correlation between Bitcoin and this index suggests that the market currently characterizes Bitcoin as a risk asset rather than a safe haven. Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates turned deeply negative on Thursday, and on Friday they remained at levels close to 0%; however, long leverage demand has continued to be absent—this metric has remained below the neutral threshold of 6% for several consecutive weeks, and repeated attempts to push above $82,000 have failed to restore market confidence.

Macro pressures have been stacking up: the outcome of the US-China summit disappointed the market—other than a commitment to accelerate US agricultural exports over the next three years, the two sides reached no specific tariff agreements. At the same time, the ongoing Iran war continues to weigh on market sentiment. Over the past week, Brent crude oil prices jumped from $99 to $106, further intensifying inflation pressures. In addition, the inflation-adjusted Shiller price-to-earnings ratio shows that the S&P 500 is currently only about 5% below its peak during the internet bubble in January 2000, and overall market risk appetite has clearly contracted. However, large-scale sell-offs in the fixed income market may provide mid-term support for Bitcoin. The yield on Japan’s 10-year government bonds has risen to its highest level in more than 20 years, and the Eurozone 10-year government bond yield has also surged to 3.18%, setting a 15-year high. Analysts believe that to cope with recession risks, central banks in various countries may be forced to inject liquidity, and the funds flowing out of fixed income assets may ultimately seek other asset allocations—Bitcoin is expected to benefit from this. (Source: ChainCatcher)