These days, I've been looking at address profiling stuff again, with tags like "whale" and "smart money" flying everywhere. To be honest, they can only serve as references, not beliefs. An address might be a hot wallet of an exchange, custody, multi-signature, or even if they change to a new address, you won't recognize it anymore; clustering is even more esoteric, algorithms "guess" several addresses belong to the same entity, which looks convincing but often causes false positives.

I'm now more inclined to focus on the rhythm of capital flows: sudden concentration into a certain contract, leverage pool borrowing surging, liquidation lines getting very thin... When it overheats, I withdraw first, cautious but sleeping soundly. By the way, hardware wallets have been out of stock lately, and phishing links are everywhere. The more this happens, the less you should trust "tag hints." If you really want to believe something, check your signatures and links three times first.