📍 May Non-Farm Payrolls: Another NFP report that blows away all forecasts

📌U.S. May NFP increased by +172K, nearly double the forecast +85K. This is the third consecutive month the U.S. labor market has added jobs, with the previous two months revised upward by +93K.
🔸 March: +185K -> +214K
🔸 April: +115K -> +179K
🔸 May: +172K
-> Looking at the total figure, it’s clear this is a strong report that dispels expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates soon.
📌 Job growth mainly comes from the services sector and the public sector:
- Entertainment & Hotels: +70K, far above the average +14K/month over the past 12 months
- Local government: +55K, the strongest since 03/2024
- Education & Healthcare: +40K
- Construction: +17K
📌 Meanwhile, cyclical sectors like finance and technology are weak, especially finance: -22K, insurance: -11K, commercial banking: -3K.
-> Employment in finance has decreased by a total of -107K since the peak in 05/2025. This sector is under the most pressure from AI.
📌 Household survey:
- Number of employed people increased by +149K after a decline of -226K in April.
- Total employment rose from 162.622M -> 162.771M.
-> A positive sign because the household survey had declined for 4 consecutive months prior. But the quality leans toward part-time jobs: full-time jobs down by -79K (down in 4/5 of the most recent months), part-time jobs up by +266K, last month +123K. The economy is still creating jobs, but the additional growth mainly does not come from high-quality jobs.
📌 Wages cool down:
- Average hourly earnings increased +3.4% YoY, down from +3.6% in April, the lowest since 06/2021.
- Monthly increase of +0.3% MoM.
- Hours worked remain at 34.3 hours/week.
-> Wage pressure is not accelerating.
The U.S. labor market continues to shift from full-time to part-time jobs; sectors like finance and technology to services and government sectors due to AI impacts. The economic cycle has been under significant pressure since AI emerged.