Analyst: Macroeconomic pressures pushed Bitcoin below $79,000, but outflows from the fixed income market may constitute a medium-term positive signal

ME News report, May 17 (UTC+8). Cryptocurrency analyst Marcel Pechman said in a post that Bitcoin plunged rapidly after being rejected at $82,000 on Friday, dropping below $79,000. The price action closely tracks the U.S. small-cap index, indicating that macro factors are the main driver of this selloff. The Russell 2000 index, which covers capital costs for small and medium-sized enterprises that are higher and more sensitive to interest-rate movements, shows that the high correlation between Bitcoin and the index suggests the market currently treats Bitcoin as a risk asset rather than a safe-haven tool.

Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates briefly turned deeply negative on Thursday, and remained near 0% on Friday. Meanwhile, demand for long leverage has continued to be absent. This metric has been below the 6% neutral threshold for several consecutive weeks, and multiple attempts to push above $82,000 have failed to restore market confidence.

Macro pressures have continued to stack up: the results of the U.S.-China summit disappointed the market. Other than a commitment to accelerate U.S. agricultural exports over the next three years, the two sides reached no concrete tariff agreements. At the same time, the ongoing Iran War continues to weigh on market sentiment. Over the past week, Brent crude oil prices jumped from $99 to $106, further intensifying inflation pressures. In addition, the inflation-adjusted Shiller P/E ratio shows that the S&P 500 is currently only about 5% below the peak of the internet bubble in January 2000, indicating a clear contraction in overall market risk appetite.

However, large-scale selloffs in the fixed-income market may provide medium-term support for Bitcoin. The yield on Japan’s 10-year government bonds rose to its highest level in more than 20 years, and the Eurozone 10-year government bond yield also surged to 3.18%, setting a 15-year high. Analysts believe that, to counter recession risks, central banks around the world may be forced to inject liquidity, and the funds leaving fixed-income assets may ultimately seek alternative allocations. Bitcoin is expected to benefit from this trend. (Source: ChainCatcher)