Recently, looking at on-chain data has been a bit confusing: clearly, I check the block explorer and it hasn't been updated yet, but someone in the group already says "something has happened on the chain." It wasn't until later that I realized the layers of nodes, RPC, and indexing are like a relay race; which provider you're connected to, how long they cache data, and how fast the indexing runs can all cause what you see on the "chain" to be delayed by minutes or even longer.

Others think: on-chain = real-time truth.
In reality: what you see might just be the "current version" from a certain service provider, with some delay and omissions.

These days, there's also discussion about certain regions tightening or loosening taxes and compliance rules, basically changing the expectations for deposits and withdrawals. People tend to focus more on data to find emotional turning points... but the data itself can also be a bit lagging. Anyway, I now check multiple sources of on-chain data to compare, so I won't be misled by the "delayed truth."