#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 How long can this fruitful orchard of U.S. stocks continue to harvest abundantly? Will it last until Q4 2026?

#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 How long can this fruitful orchard of U.S. stocks continue to harvest abundantly? Will it last until Q4 2026?
Why is the U.S. stock market performing so well? Rising for consecutive years, reaching new heights!
If we compare the U.S. stocks to a vast orchard, the main stock index is the total yield of the entire orchard, and each stock is a fruit tree.
The U.S. stock market has been rising nonstop for years, with annual bumper harvests. Summarized into five main reasons:

1. The crazy results of the AI big trees (the main force of the fruit trees)

In the past, ordinary fruit trees in the orchard couldn’t produce many fruits in a year.
A few years ago, new AI varieties of fruit trees emerged (big companies like Nvidia, Microsoft).
These trees are especially fruitful—the more fruits (profits) they produce, the more orders come in like people lining up to buy fruit.
Nvidia: specializes in the fertilizer (chips) essential for growing these trees; all AI trees worldwide need to buy fertilizer from it, making huge profits.
Microsoft, Google: grow new varieties of fruit (paid software), with people buying every day.
The more these trees earn and sell fruits, the more people are willing to pay for them, driving up the tree prices.
Additionally, bosses (companies) don’t keep their money in banks; they buy back some seedlings (stock repurchases), so each remaining tree yields more fruits, and the tree’s value continues to rise.
Ordinary old trees grow steadily, but these ten or so giant trees are so big that they support the entire orchard’s total output, lifting the overall market higher and higher.

2. The dollar is like a great river flowing, with global water sources pouring into the U.S. orchard (funding source)

The dollar is like a universal river water—businesses worldwide settle transactions using this water.
Other countries earn dollars through trade, but when they hold too much, they face a dilemma: storing it at home risks devaluation (money losing value), and keeping it in U.S. savings (U.S. bonds) earns little interest.
The best choice is to pour it into the U.S. orchard by buying stocks (investing in U.S. stocks).
When natural disasters or wars (global instability) occur, countries fear their own lands will suffer losses, so they withdraw their water and rush into the U.S. orchard for safety.
The more water flows in, the higher land prices and seedling prices in the orchard naturally rise year after year.
U.S. workers get paid monthly wages, like a small bucket of water forced into the orchard (401k retirement funds).
This retirement money is vital for lifelong security and can’t be withdrawn all at once; it’s replenished monthly.
Whether the market dips slightly (minor declines), ordinary people still pour water monthly; during dips, they buy more seedlings cheaply.
Over the long term, with continuous new water sources, the orchard rarely faces large-scale droughts or collapses.
Prices dip briefly but quickly rebound, maintaining steady, slow growth over time.

3. The orchard annually eliminates dead trees, leaving only high-quality seedlings (the index improves as it is nurtured)

The U.S. stock orchard has strict rules:
- Dead trees that are infested, unfruitful, or rotten (loss-making or fraudulent companies) are uprooted and removed.
- New high-yield varieties (emerging top-tier companies) are immediately transplanted into the orchard.
Unlike some orchards where rotten trees linger and drag down the harvest, this orchard keeps only vigorous, thriving trees.
Overall yields improve year after year, and the market naturally moves upward steadily.

4. The government helps loosen the soil and fertilize, creating a comfortable environment for the trees (macro support)

U.S. citizens spend heavily to support the economy—like government subsidies for farmers’ fertilizer costs.
When people have money, they keep buying; stores and factories (public companies) have no trouble selling and making profits.
The government invests in infrastructure and brings factories back home, improving the land of the entire orchard.
Initially, concerns about natural disasters or economic recessions (frosts) arise, but with fertile land and wealthy farmers, these fears fade.
Investors feel confident and continue planting seedlings, causing stock prices to keep rising.

5. When things reach extremes, a reversal is inevitable—what is the turning point for the orchard?

Hidden risks (orchard hazards)

Currently, the rising prices of fruits depend on just a few super AI trees; thousands of ordinary small trees in the orchard haven’t increased much in value (K-shaped divergence).
If:
Suddenly, a heatwave or drought (hyperinflation) occurs, and the regulator (Federal Reserve) raises interest rates to cut water supply,
Commodity prices soar—costs of farming globally skyrocket, and the water (dollar) supply to the U.S. orchard diminishes, leading to chain reactions.
Previously, the dollar was like global river water—businesses worldwide earned dollars, and excess water flowed into the U.S. stocks.
Crude oil, coal, grains—essential farming inputs—see prices surge, increasing global farming costs.
If these commodities become too expensive, countries drain their water (dollars) to cover costs, leaving less for U.S. investments.
Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia rely heavily on imports of oil and food; rising energy and raw material costs double factory electricity, shipping, and raw material expenses.
Profits are spent on energy and essentials, leaving no surplus dollars to buy U.S. stocks.
It’s like farmers, after a bumper harvest, spend all their savings on fertilizer—no extra funds left to invest in the orchard.
If: a global dollar shortage occurs, two diverging paths emerge:
Path ①: Countries are forced to sell U.S. bonds and stocks to get cash, causing the orchard to be drained passively.
Domestic funds are insufficient; companies and governments sell U.S. stocks and bonds to buy oil and food, reversing the flow of water into the orchard, lowering tree values.
Path ②: Inflation soars, forcing the Fed to cut off water by raising interest rates.

If AI trees produce fewer fruits (disappointing earnings), their prices will plummet, leading to a large-scale decline in the orchard.
If no one worldwide buys AI products, the consequences: soil fertility is exhausted.

1. Factories and companies stop renewing or purchasing chips and fertilizers—Nvidia and Microsoft can’t sell, and the orchard’s nutrients dwindle, causing AI big trees to stop bearing new fruits (profits collapse).
2. Tech giants run out of money for expansion, cut back on equipment and investments, and the trees stop fertilizing, gradually declining.
3. Buyers see declining yields and less valuable fruits, panic-selling seedlings (selling stocks), causing the entire orchard (U.S. stock market) to plummet sharply.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 could fall 15-20%, according to Goldman Sachs.
4. Only the old trees like oil and utilities might still produce some fruit, but they can’t support the overall market, ending the bull market.