Some believe that this wave of decline is due to macro factors, while others think it's for liquidation!


In fact, both are not contradictory; the disagreement essentially lies in the inability to distinguish between the triggers, active sell-offs, and passive liquidations.

My view: macro factors are the fuse for the decline, causing the U.S. stock market and the crypto space to weaken simultaneously; after the price drops, it triggers a chain of liquidations, with liquidation selling pressure continuing to push prices down, further weakening the market, forming a negative feedback loop.

Cause: macro data/monetary policy changes → major institutions actively reduce positions and sell
Process (market booster): price drops → leveraged & derivative positions are passively forced to liquidate → accelerates short-term sharp decline

Without macro negative news, major players can't single-handedly crash the entire cross-asset market into a synchronized plunge;
Without high leverage in the on-exchange market, macro negative news mostly results in minor pullbacks, making a collapse-style rapid decline unlikely.

The root of the dilemma is just a deepened understanding through review; in fact, over-obsessing over attributing rises and falls has limited practical help for trading implementation.
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chichipipi
· 3h ago
Once a negative cycle is initiated, the technical analysis immediately becomes invalid
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chichipipi
· 3h ago
Institutions and retail investors are both trying to predict each other, making it hard to withstand.
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BluePeonyPlan
· 3h ago
Got it, next time I see CPI, I'll run first and then decide.
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Phoenix10
· 3h ago
I love listening to the Grand Master speak
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GateUser-9335da8b
· 4h ago
So high leverage is the original sin
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GateUser-9ccf7051
· 5h ago
Institutions and retail investors are both trying to predict each other, making it hard to withstand.
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GateUser-94818fd0
· 5h ago
This analysis is much more useful than simply shouting bull or bear.
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GateUser-318a7dc8
· 5h ago
Review and reflection, position management is the real key.
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EchoOfL2
· 5h ago
That last sentence really hit home; do you know why I don't mind losing money even when prices drop?
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GlassDomeRoaming
· 5h ago
Once a negative cycle is initiated, the technical analysis immediately becomes invalid
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