Trump delivers a callout: “America is almost out of Iran,” using a ceasefire card to save the midterm elections

Trump shouted "coming soon to get out of Iran" at a rally on a Wisconsin farm on the 5th, while also admitting Iran still holds about 21-22% missile stockpiles, and Tehran has not agreed to any deal to date. Since the outbreak of hostilities, U.S. chemical fertilizer prices have risen by 40%, with 70% of American farmers unable to afford full usage.
(Background summary: Trump: Iran "extremely eager to reach an agreement"! Criticizes domestic politicians for meddling: "Just shut up and watch me perform")
(Additional background: Boston Fed new research: Oil prices no longer kill employment, stagflation risk significantly reduced but inflation may be more persistent)

Key Summary

• Trump promises at Wisconsin rally on 6/5 "coming soon to get out of Iran," fertilizer prices will return to levels from four months ago
• Since the conflict, fertilizer has risen 40%, NOLA urea up 49%, 70% of U.S. farmers cannot afford full usage
• Iran still has 21-22% missile stockpiles and no agreement signed, Republican midterm elections face dual pressure from oil prices and inflation

Countdown to midterms, the Republican economic report card is being eaten away by oil prices and fertilizer costs. On June 5th, Trump, accompanied by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, made a surprise visit to Custer Farms in Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin, with Senator Ron Johnson and Representative Derrick Van Orden present. The audience was full of farmers overwhelmed by fertilizer costs.

Trump directly addressed the farmers: "We will be out of Iran's issue very soon." He linked ending the conflict with reducing farmers' burdens, claiming fertilizer prices "will drop significantly, back to levels from four months ago."

Iran "has not nodded" but "has no choice"

According to NBC, Trump stated on the same day that Iran's leadership has not reached any agreement with the U.S. to end the conflict. But he quickly added that ultimately "they have no choice" but to sit at the negotiation table.

He claimed U.S. military forces have "completely destroyed" Iran's military capabilities in this conflict, while acknowledging the other side still retains some missiles and drones. "Proportionally speaking, about 21% to 22% of missiles remain. The number is still considerable, but far less than when we launched the attack," Trump said.

The U.S.-Iran conflict, which began on February 28, has now entered its 96th day. Both sides reached a ceasefire on April 7, extended indefinitely on April 21, but violations continue. Core disagreements over nuclear weapons and Hormuz Strait tolls remain unresolved.

Fertilizer up 40%, 70% of farmers can't afford it

Trump's choice to hold a rally in an agricultural area was a calculated move. Since the war began, the disruption of the Hormuz Strait has caused chaos in the global energy supply chain, with Brent crude oil surging past $120, up over 55%, which in turn pushed fertilizer prices up by about 40%.

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) survey of 5,700 farmers shows that 70% say they can no longer afford the required fertilizer usage. Specific figures: NOLA urea up $230 (+49%), UAN up $145 (+38%), anhydrous ammonia in the Midwest up $245 (+32%). The average gasoline price in Wisconsin on that day was $4.04, $1.08 higher than a year ago.

Within the Republican Party, "getting out of Iran quickly" has become a prerequisite for maintaining the majority in Congress. The military actions starting in late February disrupted months of campaign planning, with the originally "strong economy" narrative being torn apart by rising oil prices. Democrats are optimistic about the House race.

Frequently Asked Questions

When did Trump say he would end the Iran war?

On June 5, 2026, at a Wisconsin farm rally, Trump said "coming soon to get out of Iran," but did not provide a specific timetable. Iran has not signed any ceasefire agreement to date, and issues like nuclear weapons and Hormuz Strait tolls remain deadlocked.

How much does the U.S.-Iran war affect American farmers?

The conflict has caused fertilizer prices to rise about 40%, with urea up 49% and UAN up 38%. The U.S. Farm Bureau survey of 5,700 farmers shows that 70% say they can no longer afford full fertilizer usage. The average gasoline price in Wisconsin is $4.04, $1.08 higher than a year ago.