I’m not really good at the whole macro playbook, but lately I’ve noticed everyone hard-assembling a causal chain out of ETF fund flows, US stock risk appetite, and the ups and downs in the crypto market—I just feel a bit off about it… Correlation isn’t causation. The same goes for stablecoin supply, too: an increase doesn’t necessarily mean a bull run is coming right away; it might just be used for market making, off-chain repositioning, or even a transfer inventory for cross-chain arbitrage, which gets withdrawn back the same way in a couple of days.

Personally, I’d rather look at “where the money stops after it comes in and whether it can move out smoothly”: how deep the liquidity is on both ends of the bridge, whether gas fees are expensive, and whether there’s a sudden drain that gives people a scare. No matter how hot ETF interest is, if there’s a blockage on-chain, the user experience here still feels terrible… Anyway, I’d rather move slower now, keep a few extra exit routes, and don’t let myself get led by a single chart.