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AI Bubble or a New Industrial Revolution? Lessons from Railroads, Electrification, and the Internet for Nvidia Investors

June 2026.

Each generation of investors faces a moment when it becomes almost impossible to distinguish a revolution from a bubble.

In the 19th century, that moment was the railroads. In the early 20th century — electrification. In the late 20th century — the internet. Today, we live in the era of artificial intelligence, and Nvidia has become the symbol of this era.

However, every time I read another headline about Nvidia hitting a new all-time high, or about hundreds of billions of dollars that the world’s largest corporations are investing in AI development, I’m more interested not in the question “how much more can NVDA grow,” but in another question:

Are we not currently going through that same historical phase that all major technological revolutions of the past went through?

Most investors are used to treating history as a collection of separate events. In reality, technological revolutions follow an astonishingly similar script. First, a new technology appears. Then the market starts to recognize its potential. Next come speculators; company valuations detach from fundamental metrics; and society begins to believe that a completely new economic era has arrived. After that, almost always, a correction happens—or even a crash.

But the most interesting part comes after the crash.

The technology does not disappear.

It keeps changing the world.

That is why it is important for investors to learn how to separate a bubble from a revolution. A bubble can burst. A revolution — no.

One of the best examples is the 19th-century railroad mania. In the mid-1800s, investors were convinced that railroads would transform the economy. They were right. Capital poured into the industry at unprecedented rates. Thousands of kilometers of track were built. Company shares rose regardless of profits. Many projects were financed purely on the wave of enthusiasm.

As a result, a significant portion of investors lost money.

Yet the railroads still changed the world.

They unified markets, reduced transportation costs, accelerated industrial production, and created a new economic reality. The problem was not the technology itself. The problem was that the market temporarily overestimated the speed of its adoption and the capabilities of individual companies.

Today, I can see very similar processes around artificial intelligence.

Billions of dollars are being spent on data centers. Tech giants are ramping up capital expenditures at record pace. Governments are launching their own AI programs. Analysts revise profit forecasts almost every quarter.

For some, these are signs of a bubble.

For me, they are signs of an early stage of technological transformation.

The electrification analogy is even more interesting. Today, it seems obvious that electricity should have radically changed the world. But at the beginning of the 20th century, that was not so obvious.

Many entrepreneurs doubted whether the enormous spending on new infrastructure was justified. Investors argued about company valuations. Some projects turned out to be unsuccessful.

However, economists who later studied that period found one interesting pattern.

The maximum effect of electricity did not show up when it was invented.

It showed up when businesses learned to restructure their processes around the new technology.

That is the moment that many people underestimate about artificial intelligence today.

Today, most companies use AI as an auxiliary tool. Text generation. Document analysis. Automation of certain operations. But we have not yet seen a full-scale restructuring of business models around AI.

Maybe we are only at the beginning of this process.

If that’s the case, the main economic growth could still be ahead.

That is why I think the third historical comparison — the internet — is exceptionally important.

In 1999, almost everyone was talking about the new digital economy. Most forecasts looked fantastic. Then came the famous dot-com crash. Billions of dollars in market capitalization were wiped out. Thousands of companies stopped existing.

It seemed that the entire internet boom was an exaggeration.

But twenty years have passed.

And today, the global economy works exactly the way internet supporters promised.

Amazon became one of the largest businesses on the planet.

Google controls a significant share of global search for information.

Cloud technologies have become the foundation of the modern digital world.

Investors were wrong not about the future of the internet.

They were wrong about the timing and the specific winners.

That is why I believe the question “Is AI a bubble?” is too simplistic.

A better question is:

Can artificial intelligence become a general-purpose technology at the same level as electricity or the internet?

If the answer is yes, then today’s valuation of Nvidia could turn out to be only one episode in a much bigger story.

Nvidia’s role in this process is especially interesting.

The company has long stopped being merely a graphics card manufacturer. In practice, it has created an infrastructure standard for the new digital economy. CUDA has become the language spoken by a significant part of modern AI. Blackwell has become the new generation of computing infrastructure. NVLink and networking solutions are turning Nvidia into a full-fledged provider of an ecosystem.

That is what makes the company so important.

However, history also reminds us of another truth.

Even companies that change the world do not move upward in a straight line.

Railroad companies went through crises.

Energy companies went through crises.

Internet giants went through crises.

Artificial intelligence will also go through periods of euphoria and disappointment.

That is why I am not trying to guess where Nvidia’s stock will be in a week—or even in a quarter.

What interests me more is where the world will be in ten years.

Will AI agents work alongside every employee?

Will autonomous systems become the norm for business?

Will software be created using AI models faster than with people?

Will the productivity of the global economy change as radically as it did after electrification?

If at least some of these changes materialize, then we are not living inside a short-term market trend.

We are living inside a new industrial revolution.

And that is why the biggest risk for investors today may not be that Nvidia is temporarily overvalued.

The biggest risk is that we are underestimating the scale of the changes that have already begun.

Market history shows this: during major technological transformations, the biggest profits often go not to those who best predict the next quarterly report.

The biggest profits go to those who understand first that the world has changed.

Maybe in twenty years, investors will look at 2026 the same way we look at 1999 today.

Not as a bubble year.

But as the moment when a new economic era became obvious to everyone.

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